Can Supersonic Blue Get Third Straight Win in Paradise Creek Stakes?

Gambling
Belmont at the Big A, Aqueduct, Paradise Creek Stakes, Supersonic Blue, Clock Tower
Saturday's featured Paradise Creek Stakes will be on the turf at Belmont at the Big A. (Jason Moran/Eclipse Sportswire)

The $150,000 Paradise Creek Stakes for 3-year-old turf sprinters drew a well-matched field of nine horses set to run six furlongs Saturday at Belmont at the Big A.

Leading the field in terms of recent efforts at the level is Supersonic Blue, winner of the similar John Shear Stakes in California. Warheart and Super Swift proved themselves in similar company when first and second in the Atlantic Beach Stakes at Belmont at the Big A last November. Warheart is making his second start off a layoff since a fifth-place effort in the William Walker Stakes in April at Churchill Downs. Super Swift won an allowance race on dirt near the end of March. Clock Tower won the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes in December at Del Mar and enters this race following an eighth-place effort in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes presented by Keeneland Select at Keeneland last month. Jet Sweep Joe missed by less than a length in two similar stakes races on grass last summer, the Tyro Stakes and Skidmore Stakes and most recently finished sixth in the William Walker Stakes. Assertiveness, Flat to Da Mat, Insubordination and Pivotal Moment all have maiden wins to their credit and are attempting to prove they fit at this level.

Top Contenders:

Supersonic Blue possesses the second-best last-race Equibase Speed Figure in the field with a 96, which is the best figure on turf by any horse in the field. He earned that figure winning the John Shear Stakes on April 6 at Santa Anita Park at the distance of 6 ½ furlongs following a three-month rest. He had also won a similar turf sprint race prior to that with an 83 speed figure. In both recent wins, Supersonic Blue led from start to finish and we can expect the same type of effort with red-hot jockey Flavien Prat aboard making Supersonic Blue the one to catch, and to beat, in the Paradise Creek Stakes.

Clock Tower. (Richard Steele/Eclipse Sportswire)

Super Swift has been very good in five sprint races in his career, winning twice and finishing second in three others. In two of his runner-up efforts, Super Swift missed winning by inches. The runner-up from his most recent win flattered him by winning his next start. Super Swift has only run in a turf sprint once previously, which was last fall in the Atlantic Beach Stakes on this turf course where he finished second behind Warheart, who led from start to finish. Considering Supersonic Blue is the horse likely to be leading from the start in this race, Super Swift should be able to run that well or better based on his last-race Equibase speed figure of 99 which is the best in the field, albeit on dirt.

Flat to Da Mat doesn’t have multiple wins or positive experience in stakes like Supersonic Blue and Super Swift, but he ran very well in his only previous start in a turf sprint. After starting his career in a dirt sprint and finishing eighth, Flat to Da Mat stretched out to two turns and moved to turf, resulting in another eighth-place finish. After changing trainers to Mike Maker and shortening up in distance for this six-furlong trip on the grass, Flat to Da Mat rallied nicely from eighth of 10 to win by a head at the finish under Dylan Davis, earning an 82 Equibase speed figure. An all-weather sprint try followed where the colt finished fifth. He then was entered the Palisades Stakes (scheduled for turf) last month and stayed in the race on a sloppy main track and finished fourth. Since he is reunited with Davis for the Paradise Creek and returning to the distance and surface of his best effort, this colt may run similarly well and has an upset chance.

The rest of the Paradise Creek Stakes field, with their best Equibase speed figures, is Assertiveness (84), Clock Tower (93), Insubordination (94), Jet Sweep Joe (95), Pivotal Moment (84) and Warheart (82).

Win Contenders in preference order:

Supersonic Blue

Super Swift

Flat to Da Mat


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