Hard to believe, but the 151^st running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is just over four weeks away. The final 200-point qualifying preps are set for April 5 and April 8 (a rescheduled Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland), so by this time next week, the prospective field for the May 3 Derby at Churchill Downs should be nearly finalized.

With that in mind, it’s last call for taking the plunge and making a future wager on a prospective Kentucky Derby winner, and here’s how to do it: through Churchill Downs’ sixth parimutuel pool held this weekend or via a fixed-odds bet through Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Churchill’s final parimutuel pool starts Thursday, April 3 at noon ET and closes Saturday, April 5 before post time for the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, which is scheduled at 6:10 p.m. ET. Thirty-nine individual horses are offered plus an “all other 3-year-olds” bet that opens at 20-1 odds. There will be no domestic Derby preps run while the final pool is open, since the Santa Anita Derby will be held later Saturday evening and Keeneland’s marquee prep will now run on Tuesday.

Caesars offers fixed-odds option for Derby bettors, and for most of the prep season it was the only option before Westgate Las Vegas introduced their pool in March. The catch is, though, that wagers can only be placed in Nevada, in person or through Caesars’ geo-restricted app.

Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (March 31 )

1. Sandman (5-1)

2. Journalism (7-1)

3. Citizen Bull (8-1)

4. Sovereignty (10-1)

4. Tappan Street (10-1)

Individual Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Sixth Kentucky Derby Pool (opening April 3)

1. Journalism (4-1)

2. Sandman (8-1)

3. Citizen Bull (10-1)

3. Sovereignty (10-1)

3. Tappan Street (10-1)

Sandman, bred to run all day. (Coady Media)

Updates and insights: Sandman validated a lot of high opinions about his potential with his rallying win in the March 29 Arkansas Derby, and there’s no doubt he checks a lot of boxes as a Derby candidate: well-respected connections; a top physical specimen; the ability to make a powerful, sustained drive; and best of all, tons of stamina in his pedigree. That being said, this Tapit colt is a closer and will need a fast pace to develop as well as some racing luck on his side in order to find running room for his come-from-behind charge come the first Saturday in May. ABR’s Mike Curry details Sandman’s chances quite well in this profile, and as it stands right now, I would project his post-time odds in the big race to be at least double his Vegas 5-1 odds and maybe triple them. I’ll be hollering for Sandman to get it done on Kentucky Derby day having made a future bet on him last fall, but if I’m being honest I envision him having more success in a race with a smaller field such as the Belmont Stakes in June and/or the Travers Stakes in August (both held at Saratoga) than four-plus weeks from now.

The other recent prep winners – Tappan Street in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, Tiztastic in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, and Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks – are getting Churchill/Caesars odds in the 10-1, 15-1 to 25-1, and 40-1 to 45-1 range, respectively. Tappan Street certainly has the best potential among this group to move forward in only his fourth career start and win the Kentucky Derby, and he also has a more forwardly placed running style that should benefit him in the Derby assuming he draws a good post position. Still, 10-1 is too low to endorse at Caesars and Churchill, as I project him to be around 15-1 on Derby Day.

Final value plays:

Since Churchill Downs’ final pari-mutuel pool will close prior to the final three 200-point preps, there will be opportunities to lock down a wager on a starter in either the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, or Santa Anita Derby at odds higher than they would go off at in the Kentucky Derby itself should they win the prep. Among this group are Burnham Square (30-1 at Churchill and Caesars), who could get a swift pace to close into in the Blue Grass; and Rodriguez (50-1 opening at Churchill and offered at Caesars), who won’t be facing his California conquerors in the Wood. Notably, Gotham Stakes winner Flood Zone, who is rated at 35-1 by Ceasars and opens at 40-1 in Churchill’s final pool, will race early Saturday in the UAE Derby overseas, so if he wins that race his odds at Churchill could be significantly lower by the time the pool closes in the afternoon.

Saturday’s Wood Memorial is a wide-open event compared with the two other preps, with a 12-horse field and a 5-2 morning-line favorite in Rodriguez that is shipping in from across the country. Two colts entered in the Wood are worth considering in Churchill’s closing parimutuel pool as well as fixed-odds options at Caesars based solely on price: Passion Rules and Statesman.

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Both of these runners will need to win or finish second in the Wood Memorial to earn a starting-gate spot in the Kentucky Derby, and if either makes it to Louisville it will be as a huge longshot. Passion Rules opens at 50-1 in Churchill’s Thursday-Saturday pool while Statesman is 80-1; conversely, Statesman is currently pegged at 95-1 odds by Caesars while Passion Rules is all but ignored at 200-1. Passion Rules is undefeated in three career starts – two at Fair Grounds, one at Oaklawn Park, and each of them around two turns. That’s the positive. On the other side, his speed figures are about 20 points below Kentucky Derby-winning level and his pedigree (by Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, who stands in Maryland) does not inspire confidence for handling 1 ¼ miles.

Statesman is the more intriguing play. The Constitution colt out of Personal Ensign Stakes winner Icon Project showed little in three starts at age 2 last year at Saratoga and Gulfstream Park and was away from racing for two months before surfacing at Tampa Bay Downs, a rung below where he’d competed earlier. He won his January 2025 debut by a neck in a one-mile and 40-yard race and remained at Tampa for another start at the same distance in late February. This time, Statesman raced in last midway through the far turn before swinging wide – and once he did, he rallied fast to win by 1 ¼ lengths, with an Equibase Speed Figure of 97, 13 points higher than his prior Tampa race. Did he beat any horse of note? No. Will he need to improve significantly to win the Wood? Yes. But keep in mind: this colt is trained by one of the best to ever do it, Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, who never – repeat never – pushes a horse too fast, too soon in development. That makes his presence in the Wood and his odds in this week’s Derby futures roundup worth pondering, to say the least.