
Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas: The Coach
If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!
Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.
Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.
Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.
Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!
Pigskins
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 @ Los Angeles Rams; Over/Under 49:
Before last week’s games, this line was Rams -5. Minnesota looked abysmal at home against Buffalo, while the Rams handled the Chargers behind an efficient offensive game plan by head coach Sean McVay. The Vikings have issues on their offensive line, and it gets no easier this week against Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. However, it looks like both starting cornerbacks for the Rams (Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters) could be sidelined on this short week. Expect the Vikings to show well here, despite the rough travel situation heading to the West Coast. This line is a bit inflated, and there is value on the Vikings at this number.
Houston Texans +2 @ Indianapolis Colts; Over/Under 47:
It’s been a nightmare of a start for the Texans, falling to 0-3 after last week’s home loss against the New York Giants. However, that doesn’t justify this line move, which has gone from Houston -2 to +2 over the results of one week. Houston has struggled in the secondary, but I’m not convinced Andrew Luck’s shoulder is ready to take advantage here. They’ve struggled to produce explosive offensive plays, and that’s where you take advantage of the Texans. We bought an ugly dog last week (Arizona Cardinals), so let’s do it again. I’m expecting an all-out effort from Houston, and believe they’ll do enough offensively to win this game straight up.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos +5.5; Over/Under 55.5:
It’s difficult as a sports bettor to get in front of a freight train such as the Chiefs offense, but that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. Kansas City has no doubt been outstanding on the offensive end, but the defense ranks 26th and 27th in rush/pass success rate, respectively. As mentioned on this weeks Bet The Board podcast, the Chiefs are only a +0.1 yards per play. Here is where a coach’s stubbornness is going to play a factor. Denver has been relentlessly working on “establishing the run” each game, but they should have success here on the ground. Doing so will leave the Chiefs offense on the bench, and allow Denver to disrupt their offensive rhythm. Again, this line is inflated, and may continue to rise before kick, with the public gravitating toward the road favorite on Monday Night Football.
Syracuse @ Clemson Over 66:
Clemson has switched quarterbacks and the rest of college football has been put on notice. Trevor Lawrence is a stud and should feast in this revenge matchup against a ’Cuse defense that is not intimidating. Dabo Swinney will not hold Lawrence and this offense back here, and he may not have to as the Tigers have had their own defensive issues. Clemson has allowed 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and we expect Eric Dungey to be able to take advantage. This total opened 64 at BetOnline.ag, and professional money has come in on the over.
Best Bet of the Week: [214] California +3
Ponies
Saturday, Sept. 29
Santa Anita Park, Race 1, 3 p.m. ET
Gray Magician (#1) ran a big effort for second as my play of the day last time out at Del Mar. He dueled early, grabbed the lead, and was passed late by the Bob Baffert trainee Magic On Tap. He finished more than six lengths clear of the third place-finisher. Improbable, another Baffert trainee, is making his debut in here with a series of flashy workouts, and I expect him to take plenty of betting money. Let’s hope we can get 5-2 odds of higher on Gray Magician.
Total Picks: 8
Total Winners: 0
Total $2 win wagers on each pick: $8
Total money return: -$8
Saturday, Sept. 30
Santa Anita Park, Race 6, John Henry Turf Championship Stakes, 6:14 p.m. ET
Liam the Charmer (#6) posted a game win last time out after being on the bench for a year. I was visually impressed by his performance. He’s a big gelding with long strides, and he’s proven that he can win at this distance. His fitness level should be even better this time around,and I expect him to be closing with big strides from the back of the pack.