Dan's Double: Standouts at Fair Grounds and Laurel

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016.

Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Jan. 21

Fair Grounds, Race 8, $125,000 Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes, 4:39 p.m. ET

#6 Chocolate Ride (5-2): We don’t tip many horses under odds of 5-1 in this post but we’re 0-for-5 with our top picks so far in 2017, so let’s try to get on the board with what seems like a very strong play on Saturday. After winning seven of eight races, Chocolate Ride hasn’t even hit the board in his three races since March. But he’s had excuses, especially two races back when he encountered trip trouble.

Aside from that, he hasn’t been able to settle in his preferred spot — on the lead — in any of his subpar tries coming in. However, there’s no obvious competing pace present in this race and would expect jockey Florent Geroux to be a little more aggressive here and get Chocolate Ride to the lead. Adding to the case for the horse is the fact that he’s got a ton of back-class and form over the turf at Fair Grounds, where he’s 6-for-9 lifetime — including a win in this race last year.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$4 win and place on #6 Chocolate Ride ($8)

$1 exacta box 4,6 ($2)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$8 win and place on #6 Chocolate Ride ($16)

$1 exacta box 4,6,8 ($6)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$20 win and $10 place on #6 Chocolate Ride ($30)

$2 exacta box 4,6,8 ($12)

$1 trifecta key 6 over 4,5,8,9

Sunday, Jan. 22

Laurel Park, Race 4, 2 p.m. ET

#3 Resident Scholar: I often post a lot of plays at Laurel because it’s a track I follow pretty closely and it’s on the kind of smaller circuit where lesser-known trainers can provide value on a regular basis without drawing too much attention. Kieron Magee is one of those sneaky-good trainers who really moves horses up after claiming them — I've seen him do it for several years now (and it’s no secret anymore, he has a loyal following at Laurel). Resident Scholar (another chalky play — sorry) has all the looks of the horse that should run huge on Sunday.

After being claimed by Magee off of a maiden score, he entered the horse for $20,000. He didn’t run terribly and he was actually up against it when traveling fairly wide. Magee is a realistic trainer and spots his horses where they belong. Here, he drops Resident Scholar in for half the price and I don’t see anything on paper that should logically beat him — the main contenders are two other horses coming right out of maiden company to take on winners for the first time.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$6 to win on #3 Resident Scholar ($6)

$2 exacta box 3,6 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$12 to win on #3 Resident Scholar ($12)

$1 trifecta part wheel 3,6 over 3,4,6 over 3,4,5,6,7 ($12)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$30 to win on #3 Resident Scholar ($30)

$1 trifecta part wheel 3,6 over 3,4,6 over 3,4,5,6,7 ($12)

$2 exacta 4,5,6,7 over 3 ($8)

YTD Top Picks: 0/5

ROI this year: -$180.75

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