Pigskins and Ponies: NFL Playoff Picks and Gulfstream Stakes

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Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch ... and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.

That’s where Bob Nastanovich comes in. He craves action and loves a good underdog as well as a cheap claiming horse with a big heart.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

**Wednesday night lines from scoresandodds.com**

College Pigskins - by Bob Nastanovich

Last week was enjoyable as my 4-1-1 was marred only by picking Michigan over Florida State and Western Michigan's place kicker missing a late PAT. I underestimated the Seminoles and the Cotton Bowl turned out to be a push. On the bright side, selections Virginia Tech, Georgia and Tennessee wore down their foes and the Iowa-Florida game stayed under.

Bob Last Week: 4-1-1 (.800)

Results to Date: 27-27-1 (.500)

College Football National Championship

Monday, Jan. 9

Clemson vs. Alabama under 51 points (Tampa, Fla., 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Alabama football (Courtesy Matthew Tosh/Wikimedia Commons)
Clearly, the nation's two best teams and both have freakishly good defenses. I think Alabama will win but 6 ½ points is plenty to give to a Clemson team in flying form. Arguably, the Tigers looked better last weekend when drubbing Ohio State but Alabama didn't have to get out of third gear to beat Washington. Score prediction: Alabama 22, Clemson 17.

Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

The final week of the NFL season was a mixed bag for us against the number but we were finally able to cash some season win total tickets, cashing on Oakland over 8 ½, Baltimore under 8 ½, Chicago under 7 ½ and San Francisco under 5 ½ and losing on Buffalo over 8 and Seattle over 10 ½. The Seahawks tie cost us, as did the Bills embarrassing week 17 loss to the Jets.

Last Week: 5-6

Season Over/Under Win Totals: 4-2

Joe’s Season Total: 33-44-4 (.429)

With only one college game left, Bob jumps in to give his thoughts on the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round

Saturday, Jan. 7

Oakland Raiders +4 at Houston Texans -36.5 (4:35 p.m. ET)

Bob’s Pick: Oakland +4

Sure, the Raiders are compromised by the ill-timed injury to David Carr but the Texans had a -49 point differential this season. Historically, the Texans are a lackluster playoff team and the Raiders are on a mission. Giving the black and silver more than a FG seems like a post-holiday season gift.

Joe’s Pick: Oakland +4 and OVER 36.5

I agree with everything Bob said. The Texans have a defensive edge and they’re at home, but the Raiders have more dynamic offensive players, and a better offensive line and special teams.

Detroit Lions +8 at Seattle Seahawks -43 (8:15 p.m. ET)

Joe’s Pick: Seattle -8 and UNDER 43

Taking a team -8 and under 43 is a risky proposition, but Seattle is at home and I just don’t see how the Lions are going to move the ball. They can’t run. Their passing game isn’t explosive and they don’t match up well with the Seahawks. I’m not a big fan of the Seattle offense, but they should come up with a big play, or three. I don’t like Seattle’s long term playoff prognosis, but they should get the job done this week.

Sunday, Jan. 8

Miami Dolphins +10 at Pittsburgh Steelers -45.5 (1:05 p.m. ET)

The Miami Dolphins' Matt Moore. (Courtesy Coalman767/Wikimedia Commons)
Joe’s Pick: Pittsburgh -10 and OVER 45.5

If Pittsburgh gets an early lead and Miami is forced to throw with back-up QB Matt Moore, this one could get ugly. The Miami pass rush and running game are their greatest strengths, but the Steelers offensive line is one of the best in the game, and they should be able to keep the Dolphins defenders off balance.

New York Giants +4.5 at Green Bay Packers -44.5 (4:40 p.m. ET)

Bob’s Pick: New York +4.5

Despite the stellar form of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers looked vulnerable versus a solid Lions squad Sunday night. Despite the usual cold weather, points will flow from both sides and this should be decided in the late going. I would not be the least bit surprised if the Giants emerged victorious.

Joe’s Pick: Green Bay -4.5 and OVER 44.5

Green Bay is the hottest team in the league. They’ve found a legit running game with Ty Montgomery, the receiving core is healthy and the defense is on the improve. The Giants defense is clicking, but the Packers have too many weapons for QB Aaron Rodgers to work with. New York will try to exploit Green Bay’s weak secondary, and they should succeed to an extent with Odell Beckham, etc., making the OVER in this game perhaps the best play of the weekend.

Ponies – Races of the Week

Last week was a money “Maker” for us at Gulfstream … at least a few bucks, anyway.

Joe leaned on trainer Mike Maker with all three of his stakes picks and the results were positive. Taghleeb outlasted his foes to win the H. Allen Jerkens, Oscar Nominated ran second in the Tropical Park Derby and Try Your Luck grabbed the show dough in the Tropical Park Oaks.

Empire Dreams performed with credit when second in Aqueduct's Alex M. Robb for Bob, but odds-on choice Send It In was a class above his fellow New York-bred rivals.

Joe Last Week: 3-1-1-1 - $18 wagered; $25.20 returned

Joe’s Season Total: 52-7-13-10 - $312 wagered; $273.00 returned

Bob Last Week: 1-0-1-0 = $6 wagered, $6.60 returned

Bob's Season Total: 17-3-3-4 - $100 wagered; $69.30 returned

This week Joe focuses on the newly turned 3-year-olds at Gulfstream while Bob tackles the Polytrack at Turfway.

Saturday, Jan. 7

Gulfstream Park – Hallandale Beach, Fla.

Race 3 – Old Hat Stakes

Joe’s Pick: #2 Bode’s Dream

Bode's Dream (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
This daughter of Bodemeister has yet to taste defeat, winning all three of her starts in impressive fashion. She faces some promising fillies here, but trainer Todd Pletcher keeps firing live bullets at the meet, and this gal has a chance to be a good one.

Race 4 –Dania Beach Stakes

Joe’s Pick: #1 Kitten’s Cat

This versatile son of Kitten’s Joy has improved with every start. He was last seen defeating a solid group of turf sprinters on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Santa Anita and the works leading up to this have maintained his fitness. The distance should be absolutely perfect for him.

Race 9 – Ginger Brew Stakes

Joe’s Pick: #12 Juenesse Doree

A late closing second in her debut, this Euro-bred turfer returned to break her maiden in impressive press-and-pounce fashion. She drew poorly in this event, but jockey Julien Leparouxknows her well and it appears as though she has plenty of promise. The first turn will be the key.

Race 10 – Mucho Macho Man Stakes

Joe’s Pick: #7 Han Sense

This gray son of Hansen may be better than he looks on paper, and at the expected price in this tough heat, the risk is worth the potential reward. In his last race, the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, he got a rail trip and was absolutely blocked turning for home, which the short comment does not indicate. In a race that is on speed overload, he should be able to pick up plenty of pieces late.

Turfway Park – Florence, Ky.

Race 6 – Wintergreen Stakes

Bob's Pick: #11 Susie Bee

A full field is expected in this one mile test for fillies and mares under the lights. Although untested on Polytrack, this ultra-consistent mare trained by the redoubtable Mike Maker possesses a good turn of foot. The two-turn mile suits her move ideally as does the expected honest pace.

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