First run in 1867, the Champagne Stakes is one of the oldest races for 2-year-olds in North America and has long been a springboard for legendary horses early in their careers. A Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race for the FanDuel Juvenile Presented by TAA and a points race for next year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, the Champagne was held at Belmont at the Big A starting in 2022 but returns to the newly redesigned Belmont Park on Saturday.
There have been five winners of the Champagne that went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: Fly So Free (1990), Timber Country (1994), War Pass (2007), Uncle Mo (2010) and Shanghai Bobby (2012). The Champagne has also produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners in its history; however since 1976 only Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid and Sea Hero were able to complete the double. This year’s edition brings together a small but highly competitive field of six colts including two who posted their first victories by double-digit margins.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Johnny Hockey, an Omaha Beach colt trained by Antonio Arriaga, will be switching back to dirt following a fifth-place finish in the Skidmore Stakes going 5 ½ furlongs on turf at Saratoga Aug. 27. Johnny Hockey earned his first win in his fifth career start, scoring by 2 ½ lengths Aug. 9 in a dirt sprint maiden special weight at Monmouth Park and will be stretching out to a route for the first time Saturday. Katie Davis is named to ride. Raku, a Kantharos colt, is trained by Kelly Breen and ships in from Monmouth Park where he won his career debut by 3 ½ lengths and then finished runner-up by just a nose last time out on Sept. 5 in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth which was his first try at the Champagne’s one-mile distance and held around two turns. Paco Lopez will be reunited with Raku for the first time since the maiden win. Gaudreau, a Nyquist colt, made his one and only start a winning one for trainer Chad Brown back on Aug. 8 at Saratoga. Racing 6 ½ furlongs, Gaudreau won by a half-length over Coach Pope and fellow Champagne contender U. S. S. Valor, who both came back to win their next starts by 12 ½ lengths and 13 ¼ lengths, respectively. Flavien Prat, who retains the mount, will be going for his third win in this race in the last five years for Brown. Both Gaudreau and Johnny Hockey are named after the late NHL all-star player Johnny Gaudreau.
Club Reign, a Core Beliefs colt, was bought for $475,000 as a 2-year-old in training, the highest purchase price in this field. Among his owners are NFL Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson. The Core Beliefs colt won his debut at Saratoga by six lengths under Edgard Zayas, who retains the mount for trainer Whit Beckman. U. S. S. Valor, a homebred for Team Valor International, enters the race off his dominant 13 ¼-length maiden special weight win at Saratoga on Sept. 5, which followed his narrow defeat to Gaudreau noted above. Manny Franco retains the mount for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Earth Song, a Justify colt trained by Jorge Delgado, is cross entered in the Rocky Run Stakes at Delaware Park on Saturday. Earth Song romped by 11 ¼ lengths in a maiden special weight Sept. 7 at Monmouth Park and will have a jockey switch to Ricardo Santana Jr. if Delgado opts to run in the Champagne.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Despite losing to Champagne contender Gaudreau, U. S. S. Valor is the real deal, and he put all his talent on display last time out when earning his first career win by 13 ¼ lengths when stretching out to seven furlongs at Saratoga. U. S. S. Valor covered the distance in 1:22.04, just 1.64 seconds off the track record set by Englishman in the Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun and earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the highest figure earned by any 2-year-old this year. In his career debut, U. S. S. Valor had a tough start on the rail as he broke last and went to the far outside around the final turn yet still ran a very game third behind Gaudreau and Coach Pope, a dominant next-out winner. Notably, U. S. S. Valor ran 13 more feet than Coach Pope in that race and six more feet than Gaudreau. He also ran slightly green in that debut and learned a lot from the race, as he subsequently put it all together in his next start with a dominating performance.
U. S. S. Valor’s sire, War of Will, was a four-time graded stakes winner at the route distance and his dam, Spangled Banner, is also a winner at a mile or longer. This colt is ranked first by late pace with a massive 113.5 rating and ranks first in middle pace, average class and average speed. He also has red-hot connections at the new Belmont Park as Shug McGaughey has three wins from four starts through Sept. 30 and Manny Franco has 10 wins from 32 starts. McGaughey and Franco have just 15 starts together at all tracks over the last three years; however, they win at 29% in that time frame and finish in the top three at a 47% rate. Along with those statistics, horses in dirt route stakes races who won their most previous start and have the highest late pace rating like U. S. S. Valor does win at 31% over the last year from 367 starts, and horses competing in graded stakes races on dirt with the highest last-out Equibase figures win at 30% from 297 starts over the past year. U. S. S. Valor has a wonderful opportunity to become a Grade 1 winner Saturday and become a leading contender to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Gaudreau’s career debut race has already proved to be one of the most impactful 2-year-old races of the year, and defeating two colts who went on to win by double-digit margins is an impressive feat. While Gaudreau will be stretching out to a route for the first time, he certainly has the pedigree to handle the distance. Progeny of Nyquist win at 20% from 203 starts when trying a route for the first time and his dam Free Cover has had one foal to race who was a winner at a mile as well. Gaudreau will be making his first start since his maiden win on Aug. 8 and will be coming off a nearly two-month layoff, but if he can return in the same form as Coach Pope and U. S. S. Valor, we could see a brilliant performance Saturday. Jockey Flavien Prat is winning at a tremendous 40% and finishing in the top three at a 77% rate from 47 mounts this year when riding horses in their first route race on dirt. Along with that, Chad Brown and Prat win at 36% in graded stakes races together on the NYRA circuit and finish 75% in the top three while maintaining a 21% return on investment. Brown also has three wins from 10 starts over the last three years with horses in graded stakes stretching out to a mile or more for the first time. The numbers are all there for Gaudreau, who has already shown his ability to beat top tier 2-year-olds. He has a wonderful opportunity to improve upon his debut performance in his comeback off the slight layoff.
Raku is an interesting colt who, despite finishing second last out in the Sapling Stakes, improved his Equibase Speed Figure from a 73 to an 88 and could improve again with the route experience already on his résumé. Raku debuted in July at Monmouth Park and ran greenly, learning a lot while still drawing clear to win by 3 ½ lengths under Paco Lopez. Coming back in the Sapling at Monmouth, Raku endured a four-wide trip throughout the first and second turns and dueled down the stretch to narrowly miss by just a nose after traveling 51 more feet than the winner. Raku has come back strong since that effort and posted a blistering four-furlong bullet work in 47.60 on Sept. 19. Trainer Kelly Breen has found success with 2-year-olds in all races, winning at 20% from 70 starts over the last three years while finishing 51% in top three. Breen is also winning at 25% with 2-year-olds in stakes races over the same time frame. Another positive is Paco Lopez being reunited with Raku for the first time since their maiden win in July. Lopez wins at an incredible 41% aboard horses making their second start in a dirt route over the past year, calculated from 22 mounts. Breen and Lopez also win at 39% in all races together over the past year from 41 starts while finishing 76% in the top three. While Raku will face his toughest test yet Saturday, his route experience paired with his winning connections make him a formidable contender to give U. S. S. Valor and Gaudreau a run for their money.
The rest of the field with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Johnny Hockey (62), Club Reign (77), and Earth Song (76).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
U. S. S. Valor
Gaudreau
Raku
