Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Just days before New Orleans goes crazy for Mardi Gras, Fair Grounds gets the party started early in the Big Easy with Louisiana Derby preview day, an afternoon of four graded stakes races including the final local prep for the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, the Grade 2, $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve into the top races on the Saturday Fair Grounds undercard with picks for the Fair Grounds Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation and the Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes. With these winners, you can build bankroll that can be bet back into the pools on your picks for the featured Risen Star Stakes in the finale. Enjoy racing and wagering from Fair Grounds this weekend, and best of luck.

Saturday, Feb. 14

Fair Grounds, Race 10, $175,000 Fair Grounds Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation, post time 5:30 p.m. ET

The Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes has assembled a 10-horse field ready to race 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The horse to beat is #7 Kupuna who has won two of three recent turf outings including the $100,000 Colonel Bradley Stakes at Fair Grounds last month over several of these same rivals. Kupuna comes from off the pace but has better tactical speed than most of the horses in the race and should benefit from the 1 1/8-mile distance based on his late running style. He’s in form, likes the course, and is consistently good. The only horse to beat Kupuna during his recent three-race stretch of races is #8 Idratherbeblessed, who is constantly overlooked on the tote board as an overlay in all of his races. He’s a Grade 2 winner on this course from the Muniz Memorial Stakes last year over some of these same horses, owns the more recent win in the Buddy Diliberto Stakes at Fair Grounds in December, and probably will have a tactical edge in this race as perhaps the only horse in the field with any front running speed. With a better start than he had last time, Idratherbeblessed could get out to the lead and go all the way. There are a few key new faces entered in this race that have not competed against Kupuna, Idratherbeblessed, and the other locals so far at this meet and they look like contenders including #2 Brilliant Berti, #6 Montador, and #10 Agate Road. From that trio, the horse with the best chance this Saturday is Brilliant Berti, who lost Keeneland’s Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes by only a length in his last race. He’s back from a four-month layoff for this seasonal debut, but he’s versatile from a pace perspective and obviously a contender if ready for his best effort based on the multiple turf stakes wins in his past performances.

The Play: Bet on #7 Kupuna (3-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #2 Brilliant Berti (4-1) and #8 Idratherbeblessed (12-1).

Fair Grounds, Race 11, $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes, post time 6 p.m. ET

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The Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes has drawn an eight-horse field of 3-year-old fillies set to run 1 1/16 miles in a prep race for the Longines Kentucky Oaks. It’s a good race because you can make a case for nearly every horse in the field to be able to win, and in circumstances like that it’s worth taking a shot to beat the favorite(s). The pick is #6 Luv Your Neighbor who comes in off a second-place finish by a neck in the Silverbulletday Stakes where she did all the pace dirty work chasing a winner that got away with murder controlling the pace and still finished ahead of 1-2 favorite Atropa, who was third. Two races ago in the Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds, Luv Your Neighbor just missed by a head in second behind winning 1-5 favorite Hit Parade. Neither of the horses that beat her in those races is entered in this race, and it should finally be Luv Your Neighbor’s turn to win on Saturday at an overlaid 6-1 odds on the morning line. Another candidate for a mild upset is #5 Powered By Family, who enters this race off a visually impressive four-length maiden win at Fair Grounds where she surged from last to first in her first attempt at a stretchout in distance. Jockey Jose Ortiz rode #7 Majestical to victory in her last race but keeps the mount on Powered By Family for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The horse they’ll all have to beat is morning-line favorite #3 Bella Ballerina who is off to a 2-for-2 start to her career including a win in last fall’s Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. Even if you are trying to beat the chalk, you’re probably still going to want to have Bella Ballerina somewhere on your exacta and trifecta tickets.

The Play: Bet on #6 Luv Your Neighbor (6-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #3 Bella Ballerina (2-1) and #5 Powered By Family (9-2).