Live Longshots and Value Bets for Opening Day at Belmont Park
Live Longshots and Value Bets for Opening Day at Belmont Park
Gambling
A new era begins Friday on Long Island, as the new Belmont Park opens its doors. A card of full fields awaits bettors, and while Forever Young’s start in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup is the main event, there are plenty of opportunities to make money on the undercard.
Here, we’ll take a look at three horses, all at least 6-1 on the morning line, who could serve as “day-makers.” Let’s dive in …
Race #1, Maiden Special Weight, 1 ¼ miles, turf, 1:30 p.m. ET
#4 Ifweonlyhavelove (6-1 morning-line odds): We’ll take a swing right off the bat in a two-turn turf race (credit to NYRA for starting the meet in front of the new grandstand). My top pick hasn’t raced in 11 months, but I think there’s quite a bit to like.
Ifweonlyhavelove ran three times in her native Ireland last season. She was winless, but her connections thought enough of her to run her in a Group 3 race at The Curragh in October. She comes to the U.S. and joins the barn of trainer Miguel Clement, who knows how to get comebackers ready off the bench, and she’ll race with Lasix (furosemide) for the first time, which I always love to see with former Euros.
One does have to take a leap of faith that she’ll be ready to go, and this is a 3-year-old filly going up against older females. However, it’s not like there are any monsters in this maiden special weight event. If she’s cranked up ahead of the lid-lifter, I think she’s got a big shot.
Race #4, Allowance-Optional Claiming, 1 ¼ miles, turf, 3:15 p.m. ET

#11 Noble Confessor (12-1 ML): Only three horses in this 12-horse field have a win at this race’s 1 ¼-mile distance or similar (Brisnet counts 1 3/16-mile races, so I will, too). Noble Confessor is one of them, and he spent a lot of time last year going up against some very, very nice horses.
He’s 12-1 in here largely because his effort on July 17 was horrendous. He stalked a moderate pace that day and had absolutely no punch, fading to finish last in a 10-horse field. Obviously, he must improve off of that race, but he’s got enough high-quality prior efforts to make me think that clunker was an aberration.
At his best, Noble Confessor is a high-quality turf horse who has earned some big checks in graded stakes races. That most recent effort may be tough to swallow, and I wouldn’t take less than 8-1 or so because of that. However, given the big field that’s signed on, I think we’ll get close to the morning-line price and that could represent an opportunity.
Race #8, Starter Allowance, 6 ½ furlongs, dirt, 5:59 p.m. ET
#8 Neigh Baby (10-1 ML): Finally, the penultimate race of the program sure looks heavy on early speed. With that in mind, I want a closer that can pick up the pieces, and Neigh Baby fits the bill.
He comes in off of two strong races at Saratoga. He broke his maiden two races back before rating behind a pretty slow pace in his first start against winners and still salvaging third place. The top-two finishers from that event also show up here, but they were both much closer to the pace that day than Neigh Baby was.
I think the expected race shape of this one is closer to his two-back effort, where he capitalized on a race that totally fell apart up front. If a similar scenario materializes turning for home, he’ll be moving the right direction late while others start to drop anchor. Between that tactical advantage and his probable price, this is where I land.