The Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is the ideal race to form a bold opinion, to take a stand and go against the grain. That’s a key part of the fun in betting the world’s biggest horse race. Plus, taking a contrarian view when betting a race with 20 contenders, plus myriad variables that can lead to an unexpected outcome, can mean massive returns.

In just the last four years, a $10 win bet on the horse who won the Derby returned $818, $196.81, $162.10, and $89.80, and the first three were longshots who were minimally discussed in the lead up to the Kentucky Derby.

With that in mind, the staff at ABR will venture out on a limb to provide a hot take for this year’s Kentucky Derby May 2 at Churchill Downs.

Mike Curry

Hot Take: Japan Makes Another Bold Run at a Derby Win

Danon Bourbon (BloodHorse/Masakazu Takahashi)

In 2024, Forever Young was unlucky not to win the Kentucky Derby when edged out by Mystik Dan and runner-up Sierra Leone after a physical battle through the long Churchill Downs stretch. Forever Young’s third-place finish was the best to date for a Japanese invader in the race, but I believe Danon Bourbon has a chance for an even better result in 2026. The undefeated colt has won his three starts by a combined margin of 18 ½ lengths, has experience on a wet track, brings terrific tactical speed, and looks like he wants to run all day. He’s by Maxfield — who was a Grade 1 winner at Churchill Downs and 5-for-5 on the Churchill main track — out of a mare by powerful stamina influence Tapit. I believe he can win the 2026 Kentucky Derby and will include him in all my trifecta tickets at what should be an appealing price.

Noel Michaels

Hot Take: A Tampa Trifecta

Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma (Eclipse Sportswire)

The entire Kentucky Derby trifecta will be made up of horses that ran in Tampa Bay Downs prep races. The hot spot for Kentucky Derby success in 2026 will prove to be none other than Tampa Bay Downs, which will prove to be a better Florida launching pad than Artemis II when ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma and Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Renegade both fill-out the Kentucky Derby exacta box. For the trifectas, throw in another Tampa graduate Further Ado, who made his 3-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby before winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. 

Patrick Reed

Hot Take: Papa Mott Goes Back-to-Back

Chief Wallabee (Coady Media)

I regard this year’s Kentucky Derby as one of the more wide-open editions in recent years. There are a lot of really good contenders scheduled to run, but no horse on the level of Sovereignty or Journalism last year – and Sovereignty was nearly 8-1! With that said, I’m taking the runner with most upside in my opinion in Chief Wallabee to give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott his second consecutive Kentucky Derby after Sovereignty’s score (and jockey Junior Alvarado, too). I’ll be using Chief Wallabee in all of my exotic wagers plus putting a win bet square on the nose. His workout at Churchill Downs this week with blinkers is the talk of the backstretch and the social media sphere, and when “the Chief” wears them in the Derby, I think they can help him settle in a spot somewhere in the top third of the field and finish with a lot more focus than he did in his two stakes tries in Florida.

Riley Mott, Bill Mott’s son, is getting a lot of deserved attention for having his first two Derby horses, but after the race is run I think – or rather, am betting on – the paterfamilias to once again hoist the Derby trophy amidst a large celebration. And if that happens, I’ll go one Hot Take further and declare that Chief Wallabee will run two weeks later in the Preakness.

Dan Tordjman

Hot Take: DeVaux Becomes First Woman in 15 years to Train a Top-Three Kentucky Derby Finisher

Cherie DeVaux trainee Golden Tempo (Coady Media)

In the long history of the Kentucky Derby, 151 previous runnings of the race, there have only been 17 women who have trained a Derby starter (Dianne Carpenter trained two in the 1980s). Cherie DeVaux will become the 18th when she sends out Golden Tempo in this year’s Derby. The best finish for any female trainer came in 1992 when Casual Lies finished second for Shelley Riley. Kristin Mulhall finished third in 2004 with Imperialism and, in 2011, Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man ran third.

While Golden Tempo doesn’t come into this year’s Derby with the flashiest recent races — he finished third in both the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby and Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes — his pedigree and running style were made for this race. He’s a deep closer, the Derby sets up fast early, and when those front-running horses come back to the field, Golden Tempo is going to be right there picking up the pieces Yes, he’ll probably have traffic to deal with. It’s the Derby, everyone does. But heading into just his fifth career start off a nice six-week break, I trust DeVaux to have him locked in and ready to run the race of his life.