Swale: Claiborne's Beloved 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes Winner
Four Live Longshots to Consider Betting Belmont Stakes Weekend
GamblingWe’re coming up on the third leg of the Triple Crown. For the third year in a row, the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets will be held a few hours up I-87 at Saratoga Race Course, and the week features a pair of 14-race cards on Friday and Saturday.
With 28 races on tap, there are bound to be some prices, and it only takes a single horse like that to turn the week into a positive one. We’ll offer four horses at 8-1 odds or higher on the morning line, two each on Friday and Saturday, that could fill that role.
FRIDAY
Race #1, 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight race, dirt, 11:45 a.m. ET
#5 Sorrentino (8-1 morning-line odds): We’ll start off bright and early with the Friday lid-lifter. I respect #8 Hadrian’s Wall. If he’s ready to go off the bench for Chad Brown, he’ll be a formidable favorite. However, I think there’s another worth your consideration at a much bigger price.
Sorrentino never really had a chance in his unveiling at Gulfstream Park. He didn’t break well from a tough inside draw, got navigated wide, and lacked any sort of punch. I think he’s a very logical candidate to improve at second asking for the Hall of Fame duo of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. I think his lone start to date is a toss out, and that he’s sitting on a much better race Friday morning. (Yes, morning … first post time is 11:45 a.m. Eastern time!)
Race #13, seven-furlong allowance race, dirt, 7:04 p.m. ET
#8 Floy Joy (10-1 ML): We’ll wait a bit for our next longshot, which comes in the penultimate race of the Friday program. I think Floy Joy is a major player despite a terrible last-out effort. She bolted that day on the turf in her first start against winners, but I think there are plenty of positives from her first-out win.
She’s trained by David Donk, who doesn’t usually have first-time starters ready to go. She dueled throughout in that race, got the bob, and earned solid speed figures. Floy Joy gets back to the dirt here, and she also gets a significant rider switch to Dylan Davis. If she’s back to the version of herself we saw at first asking, she could light up the tote board.
SATURDAY
Race #6, 6 ½-furlong allowance race, dirt, 2:09 p.m. ET
#12 Trust Fund (30-1 ML): We’re going to go a little crazy here because I think this wide-open race has a bomb that could contend. Trust Fund’s last two starts downstate weren’t great, but I don’t think he’s gotten his desired trip in quite a while. He’s been closer to the pace in his last few outings, and I just don’t think that’s his game. He hits me as a horse that wants to drop back a bit and close into a hot pace, and he should get that here.
Trust Fund races first off the claim for a barn that has a $3.94 ROI with new acquisitions, per Brisnet. In addition, he’s 2-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga and gets a rider switch to Dylan Davis, who can get horses rolling from the back. If we’ve got a fair track and this pace winds up being as hot as it looks on paper, I wouldn’t be surprised if this 30-1 shot has a say in the outcome.
Race #12, $1 million Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes, 1 3/16 miles, turf, 6:11 p.m. ET
#2 Test Score (12-1 ML): Every once in a while, a good horse has a bad day. That’s what I think happened with Test Score in the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He stalked early but faded badly to finish eighth of nine in his first start since January. #7 Rhetorical was an impressive winner that day, and he’s logical here, too, but I simply think Test Score is sitting on a much-improved effort in this spot.
When Test Score is at his best, he’s quite good. He’s a two-time Grade 1 winner, with one of those victories coming here in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational at Saratoga. The pace shouldn’t be too fast, and he should be able to work out an ideal stalking trip that gives him every chance if he’s good enough. Whether he’s back to his 2025 form or not is a valid question, but at that 12-1 price, I think he presents value.