Pimlico Race Course, the city of Baltimore, and the state of Maryland will celebrate the 150^th running of the Preakness Stakes May 17, but it appears Mother Nature did not get the memo about the festivities as there is an abundance of rain in the forecast this week.

The $2 million, 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes serves as the middle jewel of U.S. Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown and four of the last 10 editions have been held on a wet – or “off” – surface. Just last year, I wrote a blog on this very topic and winner Seize the Grey had both a win on an “off” track and the highest Tomlinson rating (see bolded explanation below) in the field.

There are many variables to consider when evaluating a race like the Preakness with nine 3-year-olds that have varying résumés. Results, class, pace, and speed figures all factor into the handicapping equation. This week, it appears weather also very likely will come into play, thus the core of this blog will be predicting which Preakness runners might benefit from some moisture in the track and identifying whose win chances might be compromised.

First, let’s start with the basics: what is an “off” or wet track? In the simplest terms, an “off” is a racing surface rated anything other than fast. We have previously used the quick explanation below of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Preakness weekend:

• good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast.
• wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface.
• muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water.
• sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible.
• sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed.

The best predictor for which runners will handle an “off” track is past success. A racehorse who has won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly. The table below lists how this year’s Preakness contenders have performed on an “off” track with their career record, top Beyer Speed Figure on a wet track, and best Equibase Speed Figure on a wet track. The best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures from among the Preakness entrants are bolded as are the entrants with a win on a wet track.

Lightly raced #1 Goal Oriented ran big for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve undercard on the sloppy main track at Churchill Downs. He used his speed to open a clear lead and held on to win a one-mile allowance race by three-quarters of a length, earning a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure, highest in the field on a wet track. His Beyer Speed Figure was not quite as promising as he equaled the 91 he earned in his lone previous race, but in terms of handling a wet surface, his high cruising speed at Pimlico combined with past wet-track success paints a promising picture.

Sandman arrives at Pimlico. (Jim McCue/Maryland Jockey Club)

Three of the other four runners who have competed on an “off” track also raced on Kentucky Derby day in the main event, the $5 million run for the roses. #2 Journalism finished second on the sloppy track, #7 Sandman finished seventh, and #3 American Promise was a troubled 16^th. Journalism led in the stretch and gave a very good effort, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, the latter the best among the Preakness entrants on a wet surface.

Sandman made a nice middle move but faded late while American Promise was bumped early and got caught in traffic later in the Kentucky Derby. I don’t think it would be fair to either to dismiss them off of an unplaced finish in the Kentucky Derby, in fact American Promise earned one of his two wins on a muddy track in December and earned his best Equibase Speed Figure (102) and co-best Beyer Speed Figure (95) in that race.

#5 Pay Billy finished third on a sloppy track in his career debut in August 2024 sprinting at Delaware Park. The speed figures were uninspiring but that was seven starts ago and he is a much better racehorse now.

If the track is wet on Preakness day, both Goal Oriented and Journalism move up in my opinion. The other three are worthy of consideration if you liked them to begin with, but I can’t make a case to elevate them on an “off” track.

Another useful tool for predicting whether or not horses will thrive on an “off” track is the Tomlinson rating, especially for the four Preakness entrants with no experience on a wet track. Daily Racing Form uses Tomlinson ratings to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on wet tracks. For the Preakness field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low:

Using the Tomlinson ratings, #6 River Thames jumps out as a 3-year-old who might improve on a wet track, especially given his tactical speed on a track that typically favors speed. Of course, you never know until a racehorse tries an “off” surface, which is why seeing Journalism, Goal Oriented, and American Promise listed with Tomlinson ratings above 400 supports their cause on a wet surface.

#9 Gosger also is bred to handle a wet track and #8 Clever Again’s Tomlinson rating is promising, while neither Pay Billy nor #4 Heart of Honor will be on my tickets if the track is wet come Preakness post time.