The Churchill Downs spring-summer meet is ready to roll with opening night set for Saturday, April 26. The meet is sure to be one of horse racing’s top spring simulcast signals for handicappers and bettors throughout the season.

Churchill Downs. (Carlos J. Calo/Eclipse Sportswire)

Kentucky Derby day on May 3 will be the marquee racecard of the season, but it is far from the only meaningful day of the meet for horseplayers. Live racing at Churchill will be conducted mainly on a four-day-a-week schedule, Thursdays through Sundays, plus Memorial Day, after which the track adds Wednesdays and shifts to five days a week through closing day, June 29. A big exception to that schedule will be Kentucky Derby week, which will run from Tuesday, April 29 through Derby day.

The Derby comes and goes at the beginning of the spring season leaving nearly two months more of racing and wagering to come for the rest of May and June. Read on for a look at track handicapping trends that horseplayers can use to help their chances to win during the entire Churchill Downs season – Derby week and beyond.

Top jockeys

Jose Ortiz was the new kid on the block in 2024 when he first joined the Churchill Downs jockey colony on a full-time basis. Since then, he won the Fair Grounds riding title at the 2024-’25 meet and has firmly established himself as one of the top riders in the Midwest. He seems to be primed to win the Churchill jockey title this season. Last year’s 2024 spring meet Churchill jockey title ended in a tie between Ortiz and Tyler Gaffalione with 45 wins apiece. The top two outpaced third-leading rider Luis Saez, who finished with 32 wins. Gaffalione suffered a broken ankle in an incident at Gulfstream Park on March 26 and is out indefinitely with uncertain status for this season at Churchill.

Gaffalione won the Churchill spring-summer meet jockey title every year from 2020-’22 until Saez snatched away the title in spring 2023. With Gaffalione injured, look for other jockeys to pick up the slack. Riders you can expect to find in the top 10 at the meet include Brian Hernandez Jr., Florent Geroux, Edgar Morales, Luan Machado, Axel Concepcion, and Cristian Torres. Irad Ortiz Jr. will also do some riding at the meet when he’s not in New York. He won 16 races at Churchill’s spring meet last year.

Churchill spring leading trainers

Steve Asmussen. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Steve Asmussen was the runaway winningest trainer at last year’s Churchill Downs spring meet with 33 wins. Ken McPeek won the earnings title thanks in large part to Mystik Dan winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Thorpedo Anna taking the Longines Kentucky Oaks. Brad Cox and Mike Maker were the next winningest trainers with 20 victories each and win percentages of 22% and 24%, respectively. Another trainer to have on your radar is Joe Sharp, who was 11-for-65 (17%) in 2024, 7-for-29 (24%) in 2023, and 15-for-64 (23%) in 2022. Two years ago, Brendan Walsh got off to a hot start at the truncated 2023 spring meet with 10 wins by June 4. Last year, Walsh cooled down a bit with seven winners from 66 starters to finish out of the top 10.

With Asmussen, Cox, McPeek, Maker, Sharp, and perhaps a resurgent Walsh leading the way, some other trainers who could compete for spots in the top 10 in the standings include Greg Foley, Tom Amoss, Bill Mott (28% winners at the meet in 2024) Cherie DeVaux (25%), and Wesley Ward (31%). Other high percentage winners from last year’s corresponding meet included Chad Brown (6-for-25 (24%), Rodolphe Brisset (6-for-20, 30%), Lindsay Schultz (4-for-13, 31%), and Adam Rice who won with four of his nine starters for 44%.

Churchill Downs main track trends

The Churchill Downs dirt track is a unique surface that has its quirks that some horses love and others don’t. You will sometimes hear the dirt track referred to as “cuppy,” meaning it doesn’t retain moisture. This factor makes Churchill Downs one of the tracks where the horse-for-the-course angle means the most.

Brian Hernandez wore the roses in 2024. (Max Sharp/Eclipse Sportswire)

The track is more likely to be faster and more conducive to early speed in the summer when temperatures and humidity are higher. Early in the spring meet the track is more likely to play slower until the weather heats up. Speed horses may not excel as much early in the meet as they do as the calendar progresses from May to June.

Churchill Downs dirt mile races are run around one turn and play more like sprints than routes. Unless a horse is already a proven one-turn mile performer, horses stretching from seven furlongs tend to do better in those mile races than horses trying to cut back from longer two-turn route races.

As a Churchill handicapper, you also should make yourself acutely aware of any inside/outside biases happening during any given season. Pay particular attention to the rail path, because in the past the Churchill rail has been susceptible to mostly negative track biases. Keep an eye on how inside horses are doing at the meet (or on a particular day) and adjust your picks accordingly.

Churchill Downs winning running styles

The main thing you’ll want to take into account when handicapping Churchill Downs dirt races is a horse’s running style. There were a total of 211 dirt sprint races run at Churchill’s 2024 spring meet and 103 of them (49%) were won by horses racing on or close to the pace, within a length of the lead. Most of the other winners were stalkers, as defined as horses racing between one and four lengths off the early pace. Horses with that running style won 86 of the dirt sprints (41% of the races). Closers fared poorly. Horses coming from four or more lengths off the pace won only 22 dirt sprints last year, accounting for only 10% of the races. If you go back to 2023, front-runners won 53% of the dirt sprints, stalkers won 32%, and closers won 15%. Based on that track profile you must give an advantage to horses with speed or at least some tactical speed in dirt sprints in order to be successful.

Spring racing at Churchill Downs. (Jon Durr/Eclipse Sportswire)

Churchill dirt route races, including races at one mile, played more fairly in terms of running styles, but the closers were still at a disadvantage at last year’s meet. There were 133 dirt routes run at the 2024 spring meet, including 43 dirt miles and 90 two-turn route races.

At the distance of one mile, front-runners won 33% of the races, stalkers won 46%, and closers won 21% of the races. This means that early speed was less effective at one mile than at the sprint distances and the horses that had the preferred running style were stalkers coming from 1-4 lengths behind.

Finally, in 90 two-turn route races run in spring 2024, closers still did the worst. Horses on or close to the lead won 44% of the routes. Stalkers won 39%. Closers won 15 of the 90 two-turn routes to account for wins in only 17% of the races.

Post positions for all types of dirt races including sprints, miles, and routes mostly all played fair.

Churchill Downs turf racing

Everyone was holding their breath about the turf course last year after problems with the new-ish course caused racing on that surface at Churchill to be suspended during the 2023 spring meet. Let’s hope for the best.

There were 58 turf route races run at last year’s Churchill spring meet and post positions played overwhelmingly fair in those races, including horses that drew the outside posts.

Turf racing under the Twin Spires. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The main trend in Churchill turf routes last season had to do with running styles. Stalkers that raced between 1-4 lengths off the early pace did the best, posting 29 victories to win 50% of the races. Speed horses racing on or close to the pace won 24% of the races and closers won 26%.

There was only a small sample size of 16 turf sprints run at the 2024 spring meet. Those races were dominated by speed horses who won 75% of the races (12 wins). Again, post positions were fair.

Even when there is a lack of running style and post-position data, there are some angles handicappers can always apply in Churchill Downs turf races. Many of the horses that show up in the entries will be coming from winter stints at Gulfstream Park or Fair Grounds, and these horses should hold an advantage over locally based winter horses and horses returning from layoffs in the early part of the meet.

The Churchill Downs spring-summer meet is always one of the best meets to watch and wager at this time of year. Handicappers that stay on top of the winning trends throughout the season can improve both their winning percentage and profitability. Enjoy the races and best of luck!