Spring is in the air and that means we are currently in one of the most active and important seasons of the year in horse racing. As the calendars flip to April, the winter meets are coming to an end just as racing prepares to enjoy a spring renewal in places like Lexington, Ky., where a new season of racing and wagering is ready to begin at Keeneland Race Course.

The Keeneland spring meet will bring together top horses and horsemen returning to Kentucky after spending the winter at tracks such as Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park and the horses from the Kentucky circuit returning from layoffs or that have spent the winter and early spring racing at Turfway Park.

Due to a forecast of thunderstorms and widespread flooding, Keeneland announced April 2 that it would reschedule the first two days of the Spring Meet and hold its opening-day card on Sunday, April 8. The April 4 and April 5 cards containing several marquee graded stakes will now be held on Monday, April 7, and Tuesday, April 8. After that, Keeneland runs Wednesdays through Sundays ending on April 25, with no racing on Easter Sunday, April 20. The short but sweet 16-raceday spring meet will host 19 stakes races with purses totaling $9.4 million. For horseplayers, the Keeneland meet is truly something to look forward to. Let’s take a closer look at handicapping tips and trends that can help you win.

Keeneland dirt routes

Down the stretch at Keeneland. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

The vast majority of Keeneland’s dirt routes run at the spring meet are run at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles. Keeneland has always been known as a good inside speed dirt track, and fast horses from the inside posts are still the best plays for bettors. The best segment of horses to bet in Keeneland spring dirt routes is speed horses from the three inside posts, who won 10 of the 39 dirt routes in 2024 to outpace all other running styles and all other post positions in effectiveness.

In routes, horses from posts 1-3 won 17 of the 39 dirt routes run at the 2024 spring meet accounting for wins in 44% of the races. That win rate was an even higher 59% in spring 2023. Running style is also important in Keeneland dirt routes because it’s very difficult to come from too far off the pace and win. At the 2024 meet, speedsters racing on or within a length of the lead won 19 of the 39 routes accounting for wins in 49% of the races. That percentage was a very similar 47% two springs ago. This accounts for a big advantage over stalkers between one and four lengths off the pace who won 11 of the 39 routes last year (28% of the wins). Closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace won only 23% of the races. That was actually an improvement in spring 2024 versus the spring 2023 meet when closers won only four of the 32 dirt routes, accounting for less than 12% of the wins.

Keeneland main track sprints

Exiting Keeneland's dirt chute. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Early speed is even more lethal in Keeneland sprints at the spring meet as speed rules from any post-position draw.

In the 64 dirt sprint races run at the 2024 Keeneland spring meet, post positions played remarkably fair but running styles made a big difference. Speed horses on or near the lead (within a length) won 40 of the 64 races to account for wins in 63% of the dirt sprints. Conversely, closers coming from four or more lengths behind almost never win Keeneland dirt sprints. Closers prevailed in just four of the 64 races at the Keeneland 2024 spring meet to account for wins in only 6% of the races.

Great Keeneland turf racing

Thrills on the turf. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The other main staple of the quality racing at Keeneland is great turf racing (keep in mind that several races might be taken off the turf during the early days of the track’s rescheduled meet). Keeneland turf routes amounted to 33 races in spring 2024 and 37 turf routes in spring 2023. The results from the last two spring meets were extremely fair in terms of running styles; however, there have been greatly varying results in terms of post positions. In 2023, outside posts are not good in Keeneland grass routes with posts outside No. 8 winning far less than inside and middle draws. In 2024, however, that trend completely shifted and outside posts starting at post 7 actually did the best. Horses draws in posts 7 and up won 17 of the 33 turf routes to account for 52% of the wins. Closers did particularly well from outside draws, with seven of the winners from outside posts coming from four or more lengths off the pace.

Keeneland averages only about one turf sprint a day and there were only 14 turf sprints run at the 2024 spring meet. The only bias in these races last year was against horses from the inside draws. With an average field size of 11.29 horses per race in turf sprints, horses from the three inside posts were by far the worst bets in these races. Horses from posts 1-3 combined won only one of the 14 races. All other post positions, including wide posts, and all running styles had fair chances. The other main trend in Keeneland spring turf sprints is to bet horses sent out by trainer Wesley Ward, who do extremely well in Keeneland turf sprints often at very low prices.

Keeneland trainer trends

Wesley Ward (Coady Media)

Speaking of Ward, he is a perennial leading trainer at the Keeneland spring meet thanks to his barn full of fast short sprinters and turf sprinters, and especially precocious 2-year-olds, which often win Keeneland’s early-season juvenile races. Ward won the 2024 spring training title with 12 winners over the next winningest trainers, Brad Cox and Chad Brown, who had eight winners apiece. All three of those top trainers won with about 30% of their starters. In spring 2023, Ward edged Cox for the training title 12 wins to 11 when Cox had a standout spring that year with a 39% win percentage versus 26% for Ward. Ward has been extremely consistent: he won the 2022 spring training title with 13 wins (26%), beating out Cox who had 11 wins (27%).

Brown has improved his presence at Keeneland in recent spring meets. He did great at the 2023 Keeneland spring meet, especially on the turf, with his runners going 6-for-17 overall for 35% wins. In 2024 his runners were 8-for-27 (30%). Another trainer hoping to duplicate strong spring performances at recent spring meets is Brendan Walsh, who was the fourth-leading trainer in spring 2024 with seven wins (27%) and third-leading trainer in 2023 with eight wins.

Not all high-profile trainers have a lot of success at this spring meet, and handicappers should be aware of some trainers who are likely to be overbet. This group includes Steve Asmussen, whose barn was 2-for-23 in 2024 after going 1-for-28 in 2023. Mark Casse was only 2-for-13 in 2024 after going 2-for-17 in 2023. Mike Maker improved to 5-for-28 last year after going only 2-for-28 two years ago. Ben Colebrook was 2-for-16 in spring 2024 after going only 1-for-17 at the 2023 meet. Saffie Joseph Jr. rules at Gulfstream but went only 1-for-6 in spring 2024 at Keeneland after an 0-for-11 record in 2023.  Bettors should proceed with caution with Victoria Oliver (1-for-27 in spring 2024), Rusty Arnold (1-for-21), Graham Motion (0-for-13), and Tom Amoss (0-for-10).

Keeneland Spring jock’s room is second to none

Expect a big shakeup in the Keeneland jockey standings in 2025. Tyler Gaffalione, who won the 2023 Keeneland spring title with 21 wins and the 2022 title with 19 wins is expected to miss this meet this year’s meet with an injury. His prime mount assignments that helped him reach 15 a year ago will be picked up by other riders. The big news in the Keeneland jock’s room in spring 2024 was the arrival of jockey Jose Ortiz, who moved his tack to Kentucky and won 15 races. He is coming off a 2024-25 riding title at Fair Grounds and should compete for the 2025 Keeneland jockey lead along with brother Irad Ortiz Jr., who won the 2024 Keeneland spring meet title with 20 victories. The second leading rider back at the 2023 Keeneland spring meet with 18 wins was Luis Saez, whose production dipped to 10 winners in 2024 to tie for fourth in the win standings with Flavien Prat. Other jockeys expected to finish in the top 10 at Keeneland include Joel Rosario, Florent Geroux, John Velazquez, and Brian Hernandez Jr.