Planning to bet Saturday’s $1 million Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park, but not sure which horse is the most likely to win? Never fear. We’ve analyzed the last 15 years of Florida Derby history to uncover six trends and tendencies you can use to identify the key contenders in the 2025 renewal:

Carefully project the pace scenario

Whether a speed horse or a late runner wins the Florida Derby almost always depends on the pace. Since 2010, the Florida Derby has unfolded with a sub-:47 half-mile on four occasions, and the winners rallied from no closer than eighth place.

In contrast, 11 Florida Derbys with half-mile fractions slower than :47 have been won exclusively by horses racing in the front half of the field. Unless your handicapping analysis concludes the opening half-mile will be faster than :47, favor horses with enough tactical speed to race in the front half of the pack.

Horses starting at less than 6-1 odds tend to win

Favorites aren’t unbeatable in the Florida Derby; they’ve won four of the last 15 editions (27%). But horses starting at odds of 5.40-1 or less have won 13 of the last 15 editions (87%), including the last 11 Florida Derbys, so it pays to bet well-regarded contenders.

Todd Pletcher is the dominant trainer

Todd Pletcher with owner Mike Repole (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won a record eight editions of the Florida Derby, including seven of the last 11 and three of the last four.

Favor horses exiting races at Gulfstream Park

Since 2010, 45 horses have recorded top-three finishes in the Florida Derby. Thirty-seven exited a race at Gulfstream, including 14 of the 15 winners. The lone exception was unbeaten champion Nyquist, who in 2016 prepped for the Florida Derby with a win in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

Recent winners usually prevail

Did you know 11 of the last 12 Florida Derby winners entered off a victory? Horses who won their prep race have an advantage.

Prepping in a graded stakes isn’t necessary

While horses with graded stakes experience have won 11 of the last 15 editions of the Florida Derby (73%), only eight of the last 15 winners (53%) exited a graded stakes. Seven of the last 15 winners (47%) utilized an easier race as their final prep for the Florida Derby.

Conclusions

Disruptor's March 1 maiden win. (Coglianese Photos/Ryan Thompson)

History indicates the most likely winner of the 2025 Florida Derby is #4 Disruptor, an up-and-coming colt trained by Todd Pletcher.

Disruptor was much the best in a maiden special weight race dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Gulfstream earlier this month. After pressing a quick pace, he took over to dominate by 9 1/4 lengths.

Disruptor’s lack of graded stakes experience isn’t a major concern from a historical perspective, and since the Florida Derby field isn’t overly packed with speed on paper, we anticipate the opening half-mile will elapse in slower than :47, favoring Disruptor’s running style. Provided he starts at less than 6-1 odds, Disruptor is a nearly perfect match for the historical profile of a Florida Derby winner.

Enjoy the race!