Will Triple Crown star Sovereignty add the $1.25 million DraftKings Travers Stakes to his tally of major wins? We’ll find out on Saturday when the 156th running of the historic “Mid-Summer Derby” is contested at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course.

If you’re debating whether Sovereignty is poised for victory, or if an upset is in the offing, history is here to guide you. The following six historical trends can help you determine the most likely winner of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes:

Deep Closers Rarely Prevail

It’s uncommon for horses who rally from far behind to win the Travers. Only four of the last 15 Travers winners closed from more than 3 1/2 lengths off the lead after half a mile, and 11 of the last 15 winners were racing in the front half of the field at that juncture.

Triple Crown Alumni Have an Advantage

Did you know 10 of the last 15 Travers winners competed in at least one leg of the Triple Crown, including the last six? Be sure to favor alumni from the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and/or Belmont Stakes.

Avoid Betting on Haskell Starters

Horses exiting the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park rarely prevail in the Travers. The last Haskell starter to win the Travers was Keen Ice (2015), and the last to win both races was Point Given (2001).

Favor Horses Who Prepped in New York

Fierceness won the Jim Dandy and Travers in 2024. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Eleven of the last 15 Travers winners (73%) prepped with a race in New York, as did 26 of the last 42 trifecta finishers (62%).

The Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga has been New York’s leading Travers prep, producing six of the last 15 winners, including five horses (Stay Thirsty, Alpha, Essential Quality, Epicenter, and Fierceness) who won both races.

Favor Horses Who Won Their Last Race

Each of the last nine Travers winners (and 12 of the last 15) won their final prep race.

Grade 1-winning Route Racers Routinely Sire Travers Winners

Stallions who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or longer have sired 11 of the last 15 Travers winners.

Conclusions

Sovereignty winning Jim Dandy Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

History’s guidance is clear — the most likely winner of the Travers is #4 Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets during a stellar spring campaign.

Sovereignty matches five of the six historical angles we’ve outlined. In addition to competing (with great success) in the Triple Crown, Sovereignty exits a victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes presented by Mohegan Sun, skipped the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes, and has enough tactical speed to stay within 3 1/2 lengths of the Travers pace.

The only knock on Sovereignty is the fact his sire, Into Mischief, never won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or longer. But Into Mischief did win a Grade 1 racing 1 1/16 miles, so Sovereignty comes very close to meeting this final metric.

Enjoy the race!