
A Day in the Life of a Kentucky Derby Horse
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
Saturday, Jan. 11
Mid-January is the calm before the storm in south Florida as Gulfstream Park gets ready to host the Pegasus World Cup and a number of important 3-year-old stakes races over the course of the coming month. The featured races at Gulfstream this Saturday are a pair of races that are some of the last remnants of the old Sunshine Millions and restricted to Florida-breds. For this weekend’s winners, let’s take a look at Saturday’s two state-bred stakes races at Gulfstream, the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf and the Sunshine Classic. These races headline what will be yet another good weekend of racing and wagering at Gulfstream Park. Best of luck!
Gulfstream Park, Race 5, $75,000 Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf Stakes, 2:19 p.m. ET
The Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf has drawn a field of eight Florida-breds ready to race one mile on the grass. The most recognizable runner in the crowd will be stakes winner and graded stakes-placed #2 Maryquitecontrary, but she was winless in eight races in 2024 and has never tried turf in 20 lifetime races so far. The morning-line favorite in this race, #8 Great Venezuela, also looks vulnerable in this spot. She’s a sprinter that specializes in five-furlong or 5 ½-furlong races who faded a bit late in her only time stretching out to 7 ½ furlongs to date last winter. She’ll go as fast as she can as far as she can and hope to hold on for the full mile. She’ll probably hold on for a slice but is a sketchy win prospect, especially at 8-5 on the morning line. Good contenders will be available on the tote board in this race at good odds. The horse with the best turf mile credentials in this race, by far, is #3 Princess Bettina, who was a stakes winner at this distance on the grass earlier in her career. Princess Bettina needed a race last time when well-beaten, but that race was very likely just a prep for this race in a real try in the mare’s second start off the layoff today. If her form looks bad, at least you’re getting 6-1 odds, and John Velazquez sees enough to take the mount here, which is a very good sign if you are willing to give this horse a chance. The horse in the race with the best current form is also a major contender at good morning-line odds, #6 Ashima at 8-1. Ashima comes in here on a three-race winning streak in two-turn races on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface, and while she may not be as good on the grass, she has run well enough on this surface in the past to warrant respect based on her career-best current form.
The Play: Bet on #3 Princess Bettina (6-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #6 Ashima (8-1), and #8 Great Venezuela (8-5).
Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $75,000 Sunshine Classic Stakes, 4:48 p.m. ET
The Sunshine Classic for Florida-breds has drawn a full field of 12 set to go 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Route races at Gulfstream at the 1 1/16-mile and 1 1/8-mile distances have long favored horses from the inside five posts, and lucky for us we have plenty of good contenders entered in this race drawn in those inside gates. That’s where we’ll concentrate our wagers. #4 Secret Chat is in great current form and is coming up to this race in just the right way for a hot barn that’s winning 24% of its races at this meet, first with a seven-furlong win two races ago and then with a mile win against open company last time. A win in this 1 1/16-mile spot is the next logical step. #2 Khozeiress finished third in a Tampa Bay Downs stakes prep last time and has room for improvement based on two-turn ability shown in 2024, with a win at Monmouth Park to go along with a fourth in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes when he was not embarrassed against horses like Tapit Trice and Highland Falls. #3 Lure Him In is the defending winner of this race who has hit mostly tough sledding ever since, including a loss to Secret Chat last time. He did, however, show signs of life two races ago when he finished third as the best of the speeds in a race that set-up for a perfect-trip pair of stalkers that finished 1-2. He’s got a shot at 8-1 based on his best effort. Finally, #5 Awesome Train is in excellent current form with two straight wins. He’s not really a two-turn horse at all, but he did win last time at a mile so he can’t be ruled out.
The Play: Bet #4 Secret Chat (3-1) to win and play him in exacta boxes with #2 Khozeiress (8-1) and #3 Lure Him In (8-1). For trifectas, Key Secret Chat over Khozeiress, Lure Him In, and #5 Awesome Train (10-1).