The $1.25 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes rescheduled for Tuesday, April 8, at Keeneland brings together an interesting field of seven 3-year-olds, with four exiting first- or second-place finishes in other Road to the Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying races.

Additionally, six horses in the race probably would be guaranteed a starting spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field only if they finish first or second. The only entrant in the field who has a spot secured for the May 3 Kentucky Derby even if he does not win or finish second is Owen Almighty, winner of the Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby last month. Chancer McPatrick won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last fall as a 2-year-old and finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start of 2025. River Thames missed winning the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes by a neck in his most recent race, while Render Judgment was the runner-up in the Virginia Derby last month and is another needing a similar effort to qualify for the Derby. Burnham Square proved he belongs at the graded stakes level when winning the Holy Bull Stakes in February before a fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. East Avenue showed his talent as a 2-year-old when winning the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on this track in October and attempts to improve off a 10^th-place effort in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes in February in his first start of the year. Admiral Dennis rounds out the field, having finished eighth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent race.

Analysis and top contenders:

Chancer McPatrick might have been a bit short of 100% ready to win when making his 3-year-old debut four weeks ago in the Tampa Bay Derby as he moved up from fourth to second with an eighth of a mile to go but could make no further progress on winner Owen Almighty. In that race, Owen Almighty had secured an easy lead from the start and from the rail, running slower-than-average early fractions of :23.84 for the opening quarter-mile and :48.16 for the half-mile, so he had a lot of energy left for the final furlong. Additionally, Owen Almighty had run twice previously in 2025, compared with Chancer McPatrick who had not run since finishing sixth in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA Nov. 1. Prior to the Juvenile, Chancer McPatrick rallied from last of nine to win the Champagne Stakes in handy fashion, when the early pace was :22.47 and :45.59. Chancer McPatrick earned a strong 94 Equibase Speed Figure for his effort in the Champagne, similar to the 93 figure he earned one month earlier winning the Hopeful Stakes. Even when finishing sixth in the Juvenile, Chancer McPatrick earned a 95 speed figure. In his comeback race last month in the Tampa Bay Derby, Chancer McPatrick earned a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Improvement can be expected in his second start following four months off and second start as a more mature 3-year-old, and Chancer McPatrick also gets the benefit of a probable faster early pace as compared with the Tampa Bay Derby. East Avenue, whose only two wins came when leading from start to finish, adds blinkers to ensure he goes for the lead from the start and multiple other entrants have shown early speed. Trained by Chad Brown, who won the Blue Grass Stakes in 2018 with Good Magic, in 2022 with Zandon, and last year with Sierra Leone, Chancer McPatrick should be tough to beat in this field.

Blue Grass Stakes entrant River Thames (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photos)

River Thames has raced only three times, winning his first two races then stepping up in class to compete in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1. Improving to a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, River Thames stalked the pace from second for the first three-quarters of a mile, made the lead, then nearly held off the late kick of Sovereignty, who had run three times prior to that race compared with two for River Thames. That 98 figure is tied for the best last-race figure in the field with Owen Almighty, however River Thames has more upside as he is making the fourth start of his career and second in a two-turn race. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who rode Owen Almighty to victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, chooses to ride River Thames for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the Blue Grass Stakes four times, most recently in 2023 with Tapit Trice. From the rail, River Thames is very likely to be in a great stalking position behind probably early pacesetters East Avenue and Owen Almighty. With any improvement from his last effort, River Thames may give Chancer McPatrick all he can handle in the final stages of this race.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Admiral Dennis (95), Burnham Square (94), East Avenue (97), Owen Almighty (98), and Render Judgment (90).

Win Contenders:

Chancer McPatrick

River Thames