Can #9 Cornucopian (7-5) step up sharply in class and distance to win Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park? That’s the key question bettors must answer.

Cornucopian was nothing short of brilliant when debuting in a maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Oaklawn last month. The son of six-time leading North American sire Into Mischief set quick fractions of :21.86 and :45.50 before dashing his final quarter-mile in a swift :23.52 to dominate by 5 ¾ lengths in the blazing time of 1:09.02.

Cornucopian wins at Oaklawn. (Coady Media)

Winning the Arkansas Derby is bound to be a tougher task. For one, the race is held at a distance of 1 1/8 miles, three-eighths of a mile longer than Cornucopian’s debut. For another, the caliber of competition is deeper, with Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner #8 Coal Battle (7-2), Grade 3 Southwest Stakes conqueror #5 Speed King (15-1), and the consistent stretch-runner #6 Sandman (3-1) among Cornucopian’s primary foes.

But Cornucopian may have the talent to handle the challenge. His maiden win earned strong speed figures – a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, a 108 Equibase Speed Figure, and a 101 Brisnet Speed rating. Each number ranks as the highest in the Arkansas Derby field.

In addition, Cornucopian has five-time Arkansas Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert in his corner. In 2022, Baffert sent out a colt named Taiba to dominate his debut dashing three-quarters of a mile at Santa Anita Park. One month later, Taiba stretched out to win the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his second start, so there’s precedent for Cornucopian to follow a similar path.

We recommend betting on Cornucopian’s speed and raw talent to win the day at Oaklawn Park. Since he’s a clear favorite on the morning line, we’ll boost our prospective return on investment by playing him on top of the exacta (select the top two finishers in order) and trifecta (select the top three finishers in order).

Underneath Cornucopian, Coal Battle is a must-use contender. He’s won three straight Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers, including the Rebel and Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn.

Sandman, second in the Southwest and third in the Rebel, is another obvious choice. We’ll round out our tickets with #3 Publisher (6-1), who will wear blinkers for the first time after gamely rallying through traffic to finish fourth in the Rebel.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 exacta: 9 with 6,8 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 13^th race, $5 exacta 9 with 6,8

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$10 exacta: 9 with 6,8 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 13^th race, $10 exacta 9 with 6,8

$2.50 trifecta: 9 with 6,8 with 3,6,8 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 13^th race, $2.50 trifecta 9 with 6,8 with 3,6,8

Good luck, and enjoy the race!