Saturday’s running of the $500,000 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga Race Course awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. It’s a Grade 1 prize 5-year-old mare #9 Ag Bullet (7-2) has every chance to claim, even while facing male rivals.
The Jaipur is a turf sprint taking place at 5 1/2 furlongs (11/16ths of a mile), and the configuration should be perfect for Ag Bullet. She enters the Jaipur off four straight defeats, but there have been extenuating circumstances, many involving race distances.
Ag Bullet is at her best sprinting between 5 1/2 and 6 1/2 furlongs (13/16ths of a mile) on turf. She’s won four of her five starts in races at such configurations, most notably trouncing the 6 1/2-furlong, Grade 2 Exacta Systems Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs by 5 1/4 lengths.
Longer and shorter distances aren’t ideal. Ag Bullet tried stretching out to one mile for the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes Presented by UK HealthCare and Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes last fall, but in both races she tired after setting the pace, finishing fourth and third, respectively. In between, she found five-eighths of a mile too short in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint; after settling in midfield, she rallied to finish third by a neck.
Ag Bullet’s lone defeat in her ideal distance range came on May 2 in the 5 1/2-furlong Unbridled Sidney Stakes Presented by Cygames at Churchill Downs. Making her first start off a five-month break, Ag Bullet appeared poised to challenge in the homestretch, but she got cut off while trying to close through a narrow opening along the inside. She never had a clear path after that, so her seventh-place finish can be forgiven.
Drawing post-position No. 9 in a 10-horse field for the Jaipur should allow Ag Bullet to work out a clean, traffic-free trip under 2024 Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat. An unencumbered journey at an ideal distance should be all Ag Bullet needs to vie for victory.
Whether you’re betting $12, $30, or another amount, a win bet on Ag Bullet is recommended. You should also consider playing her over #2 Think Big (6-5) in an exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in order.
Think Big is 4-for-4 on turf and enters off Grade 2 wins in the Valvoline Global Shakertown Stakes and Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by Accenture dashing 5 1/2 furlongs in Kentucky. He’s improving rapidly and may still have more upside.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$8 to win on #9 Ag Bullet
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 9, $8 to win on 9
$4 exacta: 9 with 2
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 9, $4 exacta 9 with 2
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$22 to win on #9 Ag Bullet
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 9, $22 to win on 9
$8 exacta: 9 with 2
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 9, $8 exacta 9 with 2
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
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