Backing a Fast-Rising Turf Prospect in 2025 Pilgrim Stakes

Gambling
Pilgrim Stakes, Aqueduct, Belmont at the Big A, Heeere’s Johnny, Miguel Clement, Bottas, Noble Dynasty, Let’s Be Frank, betting, exacta, handicapping, horse racing, ABR
Horses exit the gate in the 2023 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. The 2025 renewal is set for Friday, Oct. 3. (Eclipse Sportswire)

On Friday at Aqueduct’s “Belmont at the Big A” race meet, 11 talented 2-year-olds will race 1 1/16 miles on turf in the $200,000, Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes, a “Win and You’re In” qualifying race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Oct. 31.

Many of the entrants exit races at Saratoga, which is worth noting since 12 of the last 13 Pilgrim winners prepped at Saratoga.

Bottas (Angelo Lieto/NYRA)

We’ll count on #4 Bottas to keep the streak of Saratoga success alive. He impressed when debuting in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Saratoga turf. After rating as many as 7 ½ lengths behind a quick pace, he rallied strongly in the homestretch (despite racing a bit greenly) to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

Since that race, Bottas has turned in a sharp series of half-mile workouts at Saratoga’s training track, including three on turf. The son of hot young sire Vekoma looks like a talented prospect with lots of upside for trainer Miguel Clement, who wins at a strong 22% rate in graded stakes races.

Thanks to the Pilgrim’s large field, the odds on Bottas should be high enough to warrant a win bet. But it’s also tempting to play an exacta (which requires selecting the top two finishers in order) in hopes of catching an even larger payoff.

#2 Heeere’s Johnny is a logical candidate to finish second. Even though he’s yet to win a race, Heeere’s Johnny has shown talent on turf. He was compromised by an extremely slow pace when finishing second to Final Score in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga, after which he stepped up in class to finish second (again to Final Score) in Saratoga’s 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes.

#11 Let’s Be Frank is likewise winless, but he ran well in his lone start to date. He debuted in a turf maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Aqueduct. A bumping start left Let’s Be Frank seven lengths off the early pace, and he was still seven lengths behind with an eighth of a mile remaining. But despite racing greenly, he gobbled up ground to finish third by one length.

In the Pilgrim, Let’s Be Rank will wear blinkers for the first time, which could help him race more professionally. Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles offers further potential for improvement.

Mix in Aqueduct maiden winner #8 Noble Dynasty racing for the Kentucky Derby-winning team of trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado, and we’ll have a very good chance to cash a winning exacta.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #4 Bottas

What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 8th race, $10 to win on 4

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$18 to win on #4 Bottas

What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 8th race, $18 to win on 4

$4 exacta: 4 with 2,8,11 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, 8th race, $4 exacta 4 with 2,8,11

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

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