The $250,000, Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park kicks off the South Florida track’s three-race prep series on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The Holy Bull offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.
Fierceness leads all 3-year-olds at this stage in the season, having amassed 30 points with his 6 ¼-length win last November in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA and bettors will likely expect him to pick up where he left off. Four of the Holy Bull entrants exit the more recent Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream, where Otello emerged victorious and Sea Streak finished only three-quarters of a length behind in third at the end. Mucho Macho Man fourth-place finisher Inveigled hopes to rebound to the form shown when winning by 4 ½ lengths in December, while No More Time hopes to improve off a fifth-place effort in that race after hopping in the air at the start. Hades steps into stakes competition for the first time, having won both his starts to date, the most recent by eight lengths. Dancing Groom and Domestic Product both return from about two months off and both ran poorly when last seen, as Dancing Groom was beaten 15 ¾ lengths when sixth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and Domestic Product ended up seventh and 16 ¼ lengths from the winner in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes.
Analysis and top win contenders:
As is often the case in big races for 3-year-olds during the first few months of the year, particularly when they resume their racing career following their juvenile seasons, one of the first questions we must ask ourselves is “What is the goal for this horse?” Fierceness is a perfect example of how this question relates to a race like the Holy Bull Stakes. Certainly, if he repeats his effort when last seen winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile three months ago, it is likely even the best of the other seven entrants will be running for second place in the Holy Bull. However, when considering that the goal is to run better and better over the course of the next three months and peak in Kentucky Derby, we can also assume Fierceness may not be asked to run as hard as he might otherwise be if there is a battle with another horse (or horses) during the race. Fierceness boasts an exceptionally high 110 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Juvenile, but the question of intent, as well as physical fitness after three months off compared to others who have run much more recently, comes into play when assessing his chances to win. Of course, there’s also the fact Fierceness is going to be the prohibitive betting favorite, so looking elsewhere for possibly the second best horse – at higher odds – is a factor to consider.
If Fierceness indeed is not cranked up for the Holy Bull, Hades is the horse I think has a decent probability to win. A perfect two-for-two to date in his career, Hades won his debut at 5 ½ furlongs in December with a visually impressive rally from sixth to first in the final eighth of a mile, all after running wide on the far turn. That effort earned a pretty strong 97 Equibase Speed Figure which is the second highest last-race figure in the Holy Bull field, and it is likely to be improved upon in the horse’s third career start. Both of his wins have come at Gulfstream Park, a track Fierceness has yet to run over, and jockey Paco Lopez was aboard for both victories and rides again. There is little doubt Hades can stretch out to two turns based on his pedigree, as he is out of a Quality Road mare who (per Race Lens) has produced a dirt route winner. His sire is Awesome Slew, who is by Awesome Again and whose first crop to race at age 3 did so last year. Most importantly, looking at the GPS data available for his last race, Hades ran the fastest of any horse in the Holy Bull (including Fierceness) in the last two one-eighth mile segments of his last race. He averaged 37.1 miles per hour in the second-to-last segment and 36.5 miles per hour in the last segment. In winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Fierceness averaged 35.3 and 35.6 miles per hour, respectively. As such, if Hades repeats or improves off his last effort, he can post the upset and win this year’s Holy Bull Stakes.
Inveigled is another interesting contender, particularly with a jockey angle in play. Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Inveigled for the third straight race. He rode the gelding to an easy 4 ¾-length win in December at Gulfstream Park and rode him again last month in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. In that race Inveigled was behind a wall of horses with a quarter mile to run then was widest in a group of four entering the stretch. In watching the video of the race, although once guided outside Inveigled was lengthening his stride and coming on, his rider sensed he was not going to win so in the final 50 yards he eased up slightly, saving something for his next race, which turns out to be the Holy Bull. Two races before the Mucho Macho Man, Inveigled earned a 97 Equibase Figure, equal to the one Hades earned in his recent win. If Inveigled can improve off that effort, which appears possible considering he may not have been fully asked in the late stages of his most recent race, he too may have the possibility to win the Holy Bull.
The rest of the field, each of whom has the ability to compete effectively in this race (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Dancing Groom (89), Domestic Product (88), No More Time (87), Otello (86) and Sea Streak (91).
Win Contenders:
Hades
Inveigled
Fierceness
Pick 4
9-4-6-1
9-4-6-1
$1,825
Pick 5
1-9-4-6-1
1-9-4-6-1
$45
Pick 5
1-9-4-6-1
1-9-4-6-1
$4,348
Pick 5
COAST2COAST P5: 4-4-6-5/6/7-1
COAST2COAST P5: 4-4-6-5/6/7-1
$1,035
Pick 6 Jackpot
8-1-9-4-6-1
8-1-9-4-6-1
$10,525
Superfecta
1-6-7-2
1-6-7-2
$69
Super High Five
1-6-7-2-4
1-6-7-2-4
$4,421
Pick 4
9-4-6-1
9-4-6-1
$1,825
Pick 5
1-9-4-6-1
1-9-4-6-1
$45
Pick 5
1-9-4-6-1
1-9-4-6-1
$4,348
Pick 5
COAST2COAST P5: 4-4-6-5/6/7-1
COAST2COAST P5: 4-4-6-5/6/7-1
$1,035
Pick 6 Jackpot
8-1-9-4-6-1
8-1-9-4-6-1
$10,525
Superfecta
1-6-7-2
1-6-7-2
$69
Super High Five
1-6-7-2-4
1-6-7-2-4
$4,421
