The Grade 2, $400,000 Man o’ War Stakes drew a field of nine this year, with five of the group having won or finished within inches of winning a similar graded stakes on grass in their most recent effort in North America.
Leading the field for the 1 3/8-mile race is Nations Pride, who has won nine of 15 career starts with earnings of $2,583,754, including the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes last fall. Kertez fits at the level off a win in the Grade 2 Pan American Stakes Presented by Rood & Riddle at the end of March and Silver Knott is also a strong contender based on his win in the Grade 2 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes last month. Harry Hood and Tawny Port were inches away from victory in the Pan American and could be competitive once again. Ohana Honor won his most recent race at a similar distance on grass at a lower level and was second in the Gio Ponti Stakes last October. So High won his most recent race at a lower level and finished third in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes last fall on this turf course. Rocket and Roll also won his most recent race, but it was a much lower level in a claiming race, and he’s neither run this far nor run in a stakes race to date. Greek Order won a pair of handicap races in England last year and was sixth in his only previous start in North America.
Top Win Contenders
Nations Pride is a world traveler, having raced in Dubai, England, Germany, Bahrain, Canada, and the United States. None of his travels has affected his ability to win as he’s won in four of those countries, amounting to nine wins in 15 career starts. Three of those have come in Grade 1 or Group 1 races, tops in the field. The last time he ran in North America, Nations Pride won the Canadian International Stakes easily, earning a 117 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. The previous year, Nations Pride won the 2022 Caesars Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes in his first and only race on this turf course, achieving a 116 speed figure under jockey Frankie Dettori, who rides Nations Pride in the Man o’ War. Having not run since November is not an issue as Nations Pride won the last three times he’s returned from layoffs. Given that he can run on a firm turf course or even one with a lot of moisture, such as the yielding course he won on last October, Nations Pride could be tough to beat in this race.
Kertez ran 19 races in France, winning five, before coming to the U.S. earlier this year. He won the Pan American Stakes in his stateside debut on March 30, with a rousing rally from sixth place to prevail by a nose at the finish. He earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in victory, one which he can absolutely improve upon in his second race following six months off. Last year, Kertez placed in four Group 2 or Group 3 stakes races, with figures ranging from 112 to 117, so he appears to fit with this group. In the Pan American, Kertez ran the last quarter-mile in :22.75, roughly the same final fraction as Nations Pride from the Belmont Derby Invitational. Given how well Kertez has run in many of his races, if both he and Nations Pride fire their best, we could be in store for an exceptionally exciting finish in this year’s Man o’ War.
Silver Knott is one year younger than his stablemate Nations Pride, as both are owned by Godolphin and trained by Charles Appleby. He’s only run once as a 4-year-old, winning the Elkhorn Stakes last month while equaling a career-best 110 speed figure. Like Kertez, Silver Knott can improve in his second start of the year and second off a layoff. In the Elkhorn, Silver Knott stalked the pacesetter for the first mile then took over, and in this year’s Man o’ War it appears either Rocket and Roll or So High will have that task, so Silver Knott may be in a good position to take over when the front-runners tire and try to hold off the onrushing Nations Pride and Kertez. That scenario is not out of the realm of possibility considering how good of a trainer Appleby is with horses he runs in North America in graded stakes races over the past five years. This is evidenced by a Race Lens query showings that from 71 starters, Appleby’s horses have won 27 times (38%) and finished in the top three 53 times (74%).
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Greek Order (102), Harry Hood (105), Ohana Honor (106), Rocket and Roll (93), So High (98), and Tawny Port (108).
Win Contenders:
Nations Pride
Kertez
Silver Knott
Pick 3
10-6-8
10-6-8
$146
Superfecta
8-1-9-5
8-1-9-5
$20
Pick 3
10-6-8
10-6-8
$146
Superfecta
8-1-9-5
8-1-9-5
$20
