The Churchill Downs spring/summer meet is here with Opening night set for Saturday, April 27. Churchill Downs is sure to be one of horse racing’s top spring simulcast signals for handicappers and bettors throughout the season.

The headline event, of course, is the 150^th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4. The first Saturday in May culminates a great week of horse racing under the twin spires running from Tuesday, April 30 through May 4 that also includes a stakes-loaded card on Friday, May 3 anchored by the 150^th Longines Kentucky Oaks.

There’s much more on the schedule after Derby week for horseplayers. Live racing at Churchill will be conducted on mainly a four-day-a-week schedule, Thursdays through Sundays, plus Memorial Day, after which the track shifts to five days a week including Wednesdays through closing day on June 30.

Read onward for a look at some track handicapping trends that horseplayers can use to help their chances for success during the entire Churchill Downs season – for Kentucky Derby week and beyond.

Churchill Spring Meet Jockeys and Trainers

Tyler Gaffalione (Eclipse Sportswire)

Tyler Gaffalione, the Churchill spring/summer meet leading jockey from 2019-2022, was dethroned at last year’s spring meet when Luis Saez won the spring 2023 riding title over Gaffalione 33 wins to 23. The 2024 Churchill meet jockey leaderboard may have another surprise in store this season with Jose Ortiz set to join the Churchill jockey colony on a full-time basis after battling for the lead with Gaffalione for the spring meet jockey title at Keeneland. It is reasonable to expect more of the same from these two leading riders at Churchill Downs. Other jockeys you can expect to find in the top 10 include Brian Hernandez Jr., Florent Geroux, Edgar Morales, Reylu Gutierrez, and Cristian Torres.

Last year’s Churchill Downs truncated spring meet leading trainer was Brad Cox, who topped Steve Asmussen and Dale Romans 13 wins to 11. Brendan Walsh was also off to a hot start last year and had 10 wins when the 2023 spring meet came to an abrupt end on June 4. Asmussen had beaten Cox for the training title at the last full Churchill spring meet back in 2022 with 25 wins from 167 starters. It should be noted that Cox won 23 races from just 80 starters for a marvelous 29% winner percentage at that spring 2022 meet. Look for Cox and Asmussen to lead the way once again in 2024 and be on the lookout for hot starts to the meet from both Romans and Walsh. Another trainer to have on your radar is Joe Sharp, who was 7-for-29 (24%) in 2023 and 15-for-64 (23%) in 2022.

Churchill Downs Main Track Profile

The Churchill Downs dirt track is a unique surface that has its quirks that some horses love, and others don’t. You will sometimes hear the dirt track referred to as “cuppy,” meaning it doesn’t retain enough moisture. This factor makes Churchill Downs one of the tracks where the horse-for-the-course angle means the most.

The track is more likely to be faster and more conducive to early speed in the summer when temperatures and humidity are higher. Early in the spring meet the track is likely to play slower until the weather heats up. Speed horses may not excel as much early in the meet as they do as the calendar progresses from May to June.

Churchill Downs dirt mile races are run around one turn and play more like sprints than routes. Unless a horse is already a proven one-turn mile performer, horses stretching from seven furlongs will tend to do better in those mile races than horses trying to cut back from two-turn route races.

As a Churchill handicapper, you also should make yourself acutely aware of any inside/outside biases happening at any given meet. Pay attention to the rail path in particular, because the Churchill Downs rail seems particularly susceptible to mostly negative track biases. Keep an eye on how inside horses are doing at the meet (or on a particular day) and adjust your handicapping accordingly.

Winning Running Styles and Post Positions

Summertime night racing. (Coady Photography)

The main thing you’ll want to take into account when handicapping Churchill Downs dirt races is a horse’s running style. There were a total of 281 dirt sprint races run at Churchill in the 2023 calendar year and 150 of those races were won by horses racing on the pace or within a length of the lead at the first call, accounting for 53% of the winners. Stalkers racing between one and four lengths off the pace won 89 of the sprints for 32%, and closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace won only 44 of the 281 dirt sprints for 16%. Therefore, based on that track profile you must give an advantage to horses with speed or at least tactical speed in dirt sprints in order to be successful.

Longer races played much more fairly in terms of running styles in 2023 for stalkers, but the stats were also pretty grim for closers in routes. There were 67 dirt miles run in 2023 and 37% of the winners raced on or close to the lead, while 42% of the winners stalked 1-4 lengths off the pace. Closers won 14 of the 67 miles for 21%.

Finally, in 132 two-turn route races run at 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, and 1 ¼ miles in 2023, closers still did the worst. Horses on or close to the lead won 39% of the routes, while stalkers won 40%. Closers won 28 of the 132 two-turn routes for just a 21% success rate.

Looking at post positions, in 281 total sprint races run in the calendar year 2023, 42% were won by horses breaking from the three inside posts. Not far behind in terms of effectiveness were middle posts 4-6 which accounted for 37% of the sprint winners. Outside posts won only 63 of the 281 dirt sprints in 2023, accounting for 22%.

There were 67 races run at one mile in 2023, and inside posts (27 winners) and middle posts (29 winners) were nearly equal while horses breaking from posts 7 or wider won only 11 of the 67 races.

In route races run at 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, and 1 ¼ miles there were a total of 132 races run in 2023, with horses from inside posts winning 88 races, middle posts winning 80 races, and outside posts winning 18 total races.

Churchill Downs Turf Racing

Whither the Churchill turf? (Eclipse Sportswire)

The state of Churchill Downs turf racing is in flux, and everyone is holding their breath going into the 2024 season after turf racing needed to be suspended for much of 2023 as Churchill’s “new” turf course continued to take root. Based on the first condition book of the 2024 spring season, Churchill is offering one turf route and one turf sprint per day on most days, not including stakes. We’ll see if that comes to pass, but we won’t know for sure until the course is able to withstand day-to-day race usage. For handicappers, it’s impossible to speculate on winning tips and trends for the course until a sufficient number of grass races have been run this season.

Even with a lack of running style and post position data, however, there are some angles handicappers can apply in Churchill Downs turf races. Many of the horses that show up in the entries at Churchill will be coming from winter stints at Gulfstream Park or Fair Grounds, and these horses should hold an advantage over locally based winter horses and horses returning from layoffs in the early part of the meet.

In Churchill’s short turf sprints, many entrants will have last raced at Gulfstream, where the turf sprints favor speed horses. Therefore, if you see stalkers or closers arriving off losses in Gulfstream turf sprints, you might want to upgrade their chances at Churchill because their running style plays better there. Plus, these horses might be value-priced overlays.

The Churchill Downs spring/summer meet is always one of the best meets to watch and wager at this time of year. Hopefully staying on top of the winning trends throughout the spring/summer season will help you improve your winning percentage at Churchill Downs. Best of luck!