The Grade 2 $350,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes on Saturday, Oct. 21 at Keeneland will showcase some of the top 3-year-old filly sprinters in North America. Six of the nine entrants won their most recent race, with four of those victories coming in stakes races. Alva Starr won at the highest level when taking the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes last month and hopes to do the same while running this seven-furlong distance for the first time. Vahva won the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks at the distance of the Raven Run and hopes to duplicate that effort. Lady Radler pulled off the 23-1 upset in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes four weeks ago at the same distance and adds to the depth of contention. Apple Picker ships in from Maryland off a strong 4 ½-length win in the Weather Vane Stakes, while Ancient Peace cuts back in distance after a second of eight finish in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks one month ago. Dazzling Blue was no match for Alva Starr in the Prioress but prior to that finished second in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes at 6 ½ furlongs. Nom de Plume was last seen winning a two-turn race on turf in August and tries stakes company and dirt for the first time but may be this good. Simply Stated won the Penn Ladies Dash in August and enters the race looking for her fifth straight win. Lily Poo rounds out the field, coming into the race off a pair of fifth-place finishes, the most recent in the Charles Town Oaks.

Top Contenders:

Vahva may have the slightest edge over Alva Starr in this race because her most recent start in late August winning the Charles Town Oaks came at the same seven-furlong distance of the Raven Run Stakes. Not only that, but the course configuration at Charles Town is such that seven-furlong trip was around two-turns, which can be more difficult to navigate than one turn. The cut back to one turn may help Vahva to run better, than she did in the Oaks, where she stalked in third for the first six furlongs, then came out three paths wide to win going away. That effort earned her a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, a nice improvement off the 91 figure she earned a little over one month earlier when third in the Victory Ride Stakes. Considering Vahva had been away from the races for two months before the Victory Ride, her pattern for more improvement is pretty obvious. It must also be noted that the 2022 Raven Run Winner (Caramel Swirl) used the Charles Town Oaks as her final start before victory in this race.

Alva Starr has never finished worse than second in five races, winning three and placing in the other two. Her last two efforts have been her most impressive, first when winning the Dashing Beauty Stakes in July with a career-best 106 figure then winning the Prioress Stakes by nearly nine lengths. Although the 103 figure in the Prioress was lower than the 106 figure in her prior start, Alva Starr was geared down in the final sixteenth of a mile so she could have run faster. An interesting fact about this filly is she is a full sister to Cilla, who won a number of stakes and earned a half-million dollars, including when third in the 2021 Raven Run following a win in the Prioress, for the same trainer (Brett Brinkman). If there is one concern, it is that every race Alva Starr has run has been at six furlongs, so this will be her first attempt at a longer distance.

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Honorable mention goes to two more talented fillies. The first of the pair is Simply Stated, as she’s won four in a row including the Penn Ladies Dash Stakes in August with a 95 figure. After that, Simply Stated won on the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs, earning a 92 figure. What’s interesting to note is that her trainer, Todd Beattie, shipped in Taris to win this race in 2014 off an identical win at Presque Isle Downs at six furlongs. Lady Radler is the other horse who I feel deserves honorable mention. She paid $48 to win when taking the Dogwood Stakes last month at this distance. She won two races in a row this summer and last year she ran very well to finish second at 30 to 1 in the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland. The first of her two wins this spring came in the Goldfinch Stakes, in which she earned a career-best 96 figure. As a filly with five wins in 10 races, she has some quality about her and can’t be discarded as a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Ancient Peace (96), Apple Picker (92), Dazzling Blue (94), Lily Poo (90) and Nom de Plume (86).

Win Contenders:

Vahva

Alva Starr

Contenders for second or third:

Simply Stated

Lady Radler