The $1 million, Grade 1 TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park isn’t part of the Triple Crown, but it often seems like a summer extension of the spring classics. The prestigious 1 1/8-mile race annually draws some of the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in the country, including alumni from the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes.

The 2023 Haskell is slated to take place Saturday with NBC and Peacock carrying the action live from 5-6 p.m. ET. The Haskell serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier to the Nov. 4 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park, and it’s easy to understand why — three of the last nine Haskell victors have gone on to win the Classic.

Who will prevail in this year’s Haskell? Reviewing the recent history of the race can help solve the mystery by uncovering trends and tendencies uniting previous winners. Let’s dig in and see what the data reveals:

Speed horses have the advantage

For the most part, it pays to favor speed horses in the Haskell. As is typical of North American dirt racing, horses with tactical speed hold an advantage in Monmouth’s signature race, with 15 of the last 20 winners racing within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.

Bob Baffert has the best record among trainers

Baffert, blue jacket, with American Pharoah after 2015 Haskell. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trainer Bob Baffert knows the winning formula for the Haskell. Since 2000, the Hall of Fame conditioner has saddled 14 starters in the Haskell, with nine visiting the winner’s circle and the other five settling for second place.

But it’s worth noting Baffert’s Haskell horses tend to fall into two distinct categories. Six of his nine winners had previously competed in a Triple Crown race, while three of his five runners-up did not. This brings us to our next point:

Favor veterans of the Triple Crown

Almost without exception, the Haskell is won by a horse who competed in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and/or Belmont Stakes, the three legs of the Triple Crown. Check out the stats, and you’ll find 17 of the last 20 Haskell winners (and 25 of the last 30) had previously competed in at least one leg of the Triple Crown.

We did see an exception as recently as 2020, when Authentic took home top honors, but it’s worth noting the 2020 Haskell was held before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness as part of a racing calendar restructured due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Count on proven route runners

Sprinters unproven running one mile or farther rarely (if ever?) win the Haskell. Indeed, every Haskell winner since at least 1981 (a span of 41 years) had previously won a race at one mile or longer, so betting proven route runners is the way to go in the Haskell.

Look for established stakes winners

Almost as remarkable as the route runners statistic is the fact 42 of the last 43 Haskell winners had previously won a stakes. The lone exception to this tried-and-true trend was Paynter, who won the 2012 Haskell after finishing second by a neck in the Belmont Stakes.

Bet on favorites and be wary of longshots

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Longshot winners are uncommon in the Haskell. Nine of the last 15 winners started as the favorite (an impressive 60% success rate), while four other Haskell winners went off as the second betting choice at odds no higher than 9-2.

But wait, there’s more. Only two Haskell winners have started at higher than 9-2 since 1992, and both went off at single-digit odds, so they weren’t exactly shocking longshots. The battles for second and third place have been similarly predictable; of the 60 horses to finish in the Haskell trifecta over the last 20 years, 52 of them (87%) started at single-digit odds.

Favor horses with stamina-oriented pedigrees

Sprinters don’t typically sire Haskell winners — that much can be determined from even a brief glance at the pedigrees of recent Haskell champions. Horses with classic breeding tend to dominate the 1 1/8-mile race.

Case in point? Eight of the last 13 Haskell winners were sired by a stallion who competed in a Triple Crown race. Furthermore, the five sires who defied this trend (Smart Strike, Awesome Again, New Year’s Day, and Into Mischief twice) were all Grade 1 winners running 1 1/16 miles or farther. Talent and stamina are genetic qualities passed down from generation to generation, and if a horse is going to vie for victory in the Haskell, it helps to have a pedigree geared toward success in the classics.

Conclusions

Entries for the Haskell won’t be released until Wednesday, but based on the list of possible starters, a handful of key contenders are evident.

Arabian Knight winning Southwest. (Coady Photography)

Arguably the best match for the historical profile of a Haskell winner is Arabian Knight. The speedy Bob Baffert trainee is unbeaten in two starts, including a gate-to-wire romp in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park during the winter. It’s possible Arabian Knight will start as the favorite, in which case he would check every box we’ve outlined except one: he didn’t start in a Triple Crown race.

Other logical win threats include Mage and Tapit Trice. Mage is the most accomplished horse in the field by virtue of his stretch-running triumph in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and respectable third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes, but his tendency to rally from off the pace is a historical detriment.

The same goes for Tapit Trice, who rallied from far back to win the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and finish third in the Belmont Stakes. And since neither Mage nor Tapit Trice is trained by Baffert, they fall short compared with Arabian Knight when tallying up pros and cons in the historical categories. If you’re willing to overlook the fact Arabian Knight skipped the Triple Crown, history suggests he’s the most likely winner of the Haskell.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!