From its inaugural edition won by Royal Heroine in 1984 right through Modern Games’ victory last year, the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been one of the most intriguing races not only in the World Championships but in the sport of horse racing.

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It is, unequivocally, my favorite race of the year and the one I most look forward to every year as the Breeders’ Cup approaches.

There is so much history in the race from Hall of Famer Miesque winning back-to-back editions in 1987 and 1988 to fellow future Hall of Famer Lure duplicating the feat in 1992 and 1993. There was 1996 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Da Hoss authoring “the greatest comeback since Lazarus” when winning the 1998 edition with only a single allowance win at Colonial Downs in the two years between his two victories in the race. More recently, we’ve seen absolutely dominant miler Goldikova sweep three straight editions of the race from 2008 to 2010 and then one of the best U.S. turf horses of all-time, Wise Dan, win the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2012 and 2013. There is just so much wonderful history and there are so many iconic Mile performances, and then you add in the fact that in between there have been some simply astounding upsets and you have a chef’s kiss recipe creating a wonderful race for fans of the sport.

With Modern Games having been retired in August, the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile presented by Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund figures to be a wide-open race with plenty of intrigue. Let’s examine the last 20 editions of this race in search of some helpful tips and trends to help find a winner.

World Approval (Eclipse Sportswire)

1. Shun the Front-Runners: The last winner to lead in the Mile from start to finish was Lure in 1992. The following year Lure was second after the opening quarter-mile before assuming the lead and then notching a repeat win by 2 ¼ lengths, and no front-runner has won the Mile since. In fact, the only winner in the last 25 years who was a press-the-pace type was World Approval in 2017.

2. Explosive Finishing Speed: Sixteen of the last 20 editions were won by horses that profiled as either a stalker, stalker-closer, or closer. Four of the last 20 winners were dedicated closers and seven of the last 24 were true closers. Pacesetters can and do hold on for minor awards in the Mile – although only four of the horses who led after the opening quarter-mile from 2003 to 2022 held on to finish second or third – but pay special attention to horses who rally from off the pace with elite finishing speed.

3. European Firepower: It’s not surprising that European-based runners have done very well over the last 20 years in the Mile. After all, horses who prepped in Europe won three of the first five editions and four of the first seven. Since 2003, nine of the 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Mile made their final start in preparation for the World Championships in Europe (seven in France and one each in England and Ireland). Likewise, nine of the last 20 winners were bred in Europe, with six Irish-bred winners, although three of them were the same mare – the great Goldikova.

4. Established Class: Fourteen of the last 16 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners were established Grade/Group 1 winners entering the race with the lone exceptions being 2018 victor Expert Eye, a Group 2 stakes winner, and 73.20-1 upset winner Order of Australia in 2020, who was an allowance winner from the powerful barn of legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien.

5. Don’t Sleep on the 3-Year-Olds: Three-year-olds taking on older horses is no doubt a significant hurdle every fall-winter, but it seems to be less daunting going a mile on the grass in the Breeders’ Cup. Three of the last five winners – Modern Games (2022), Order of Australia (2020), and Expert Eye (2018) – were 3-year-olds facing older horses and six of the last 20 were sophomores, including fillies Six Perfections in 2003 and Goldikova in 2008. The common thread among the 3-year-olds is that all of them shipped over from Europe, so if you are looking at the 3-year-olds favor the international invaders over the domestic contenders.

Uni (Eclipse Sportswire)

6. Girl Power: Granted, this is a bit skewed by the aforementioned Goldikova’s three straight wins, but since 2003 fillies and mares have performed quite well in the Mile with six wins. The two most recent female winners were U.S.-based Tepin in 2015 and Uni in 2019. Talented racemares have a big shot in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

7. Sometimes Standouts Stand Out: Favorites have a solid strike rate in the last 20 editions of the Mile, clicking at 40% (8-for-20). But when favorites win this race it’s usually because they were truly elite runners like Goldikova (2008, 2009, 2010) and Wise Dan (2012 and 2012) or obvious win candidates at the pinnacle of their game like World Approval (2017), Space Blues (2021), and Modern Games (2022). It’s not the spot for a tepid favorite; in fact, if the race looks balanced on paper it’s much better to try a longshot.

8. Profiling a Longshot: There have been six double-digit longshot winners in the past 20 editions: Singletary, 16.50-1 in 2004; Miesque’s Approval, 24.30-1 in 2006; Court Vision, 64.80-1 in 2011; Karakontie, 30-1 in 2014; Tourist, 12.40-1 in 2016; and Order of Australia, 73.20-1 in 2020. The average winning odds over the last 20 years has been 13.40-1 with a median of 5.10-1, which in my opinion shows that there is a high variance from year to year in terms of predictability. Only one of the six double-digit longshots defeated a heavy favorite when Court Vision spoiled 13-10 favorite Goldikova’s bid for a fourth straight win. Four of the double-digit winners came in races with lukewarm favorites of 3-1 or higher and all six finished third or worse in their final prep race, which brings us to ...

9. Recent Form Not a Dealbreaker: In most of the races on the Breeders’ Cup card the fields are filled with horses with 1s and 2s in terms of recent form. It makes sense; in order to be a contender for the World Championships, racehorses must be damn good and at the top of their game. But it does seem to be less important in the Breeders’ Cup Mile as only eight of the last 20 winners entered the race off of a win and four Mile winners finished outside the top three in their final prep. Not surprisingly, all four of the unplaced runners triggered massive payouts at the Breeders’ Cup: Miesque’s Approval (4^th in Shadwell Mile at Keeneland 2006); Court Vision (7^th in Woodbine Mile in 2011); Karakontie (11^th in the Prix de la Foret in France in 2014); and Order of Australia (9^th in a Group 3 race in Ireland in 2020). The first two ran well in defeat, both beaten by less than three lengths, while Karakontie was a French classic winner who endured a terrible trip in the Prix de la Foret and Order of Australia did not handle soft turf at the Curragh. The Mile is a race that will reward your time spent digging a little deeper into each contender.

10. Favor True Milers: The Breeders’ Cup Mile is most often won by horses who have a clear affinity for the distance rather than sprinters stretching out or horses cutting back in distance. The average distance raced in pre-Breeders’ Cup starts in the year of a horse’s win from 2003 to 2022 was 8.27 furlongs (right between a mile and 1 1/16 miles) with a median almost exactly the same of 8.25 furlongs. The numbers were even stronger in support of this before Space Blues (a sprinter stretching out in 2021) and Order of Australia (who raced primarily a 1 ¼ miles or longer in 2020) bucked the trend. Historically, this is still a miler’s race.

Applying These Trends to 2023

Songline (Eclipse Sportswire)

Pre-entries come out Oct. 25. I’ll amend this section at that time to remove some of the runners that will inevitably skip the race or chose to target a different one at the World Championships and also to include any interesting late additions. But at this point, the Breeders’ Cup Mile field looks like a deep and strong group of hopefuls with no clear standout.

My first instinct is to eliminate the runners that, while talented, might be trying to buck history at a short price. U.S.-based Grade 1 winner In Italian has first preference for the Maker’s Mark Filly and Mare Turf and the front-runner might have better luck using her speed in that race than in the Mile, which has not been kind to speed horses. Front-running Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana winner Mawj has won four straight for Godolphin, but it is very difficult to lead the Mile from start to finish so she is another I would prefer to use in second or third in exacta and trifecta tickets. Likewise, speedy U.S.-based runner Astronomer and potential Japanese invader Win Carnelian also are up against historical trends.

I love the chances of Japanese invader Songline, who finished second by a nose in her first start in four months after a repeat win in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen. She has elite finishing speed and has made nine of her 16 starts at a mile. She ticks almost every box.

Charlie Appleby has won the last two editions of this race and Appleby’s Ricoh Woodbine Mile victor Master of The Seas must be respected despite a second most recently to Up to the Mark in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes Oct. 7 at Keeneland. Up to the Mark is under consideration for the Longines Turf, but if he instead targets the Mile, he has tremendous closing speed and several outstanding races at one mile.

I was a little surprised to see Paddington pre-entered for the Mile for elite European train Aidan O’Brien, who has only one the Mile once among his 16 wins at the Breeders’ Cup with upset winner Order of Australia in 2020. Paddington is a true elite miler with four wins at that distance in Europe this year, including an Irish classic among three Group 1 mile wins. He also has a Group 1 win at 1 ¼ miles, but most recently he was eager early in his return from a layoff on soft turf in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, where he faded badly when ninth and beaten by 35 ½ lengths. That could scare some bettors away, but make no mistake he’s a top win candidate who should be able to tuck in just a few lengths off the pace and should relish firmer ground.

Several U.S.-based runners with top finishing ability are Fourstardave Handicap winner Casa Creed, First Lady Stakes Presented by UK HealthCare winner Gina Romantica, and Jefferson Cup Stakes winner More Than Looks. Of that trio, I prefer the filly, Gina Romantica, from the barn of top turf trainer Chad Brown. She was a missile in the stretch at Keeneland in the First Lady and looks to be heading into the race sitting on a huge effort. 

Now for some live longshots: Based on recent history I think European invader Kelina, a 3-year-old filly by Frankel, could be very dangerous at an appealing price. Kelina is impeccably bred and probably would not be a huge price coming off a win in the Qatar Prix de la Foret in France Oct. 1, but she was a 27-1 bomb in the Prix de la Foret and before that she was soundly defeated twice on soft or good-to-soft ground. The Wertheimer brothers homebred is 2-for-2 on firm turf and also has a big shot to take a step forward on the firm Southern California turf. Another 3-year-old filly from France coming out of the Prix de la Foret who could make an impact at a price is Sauterne. If you can forgive her eighth-place finish in that race at 4.90-1 odds, she won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp by a length at this one-mile distance one start earlier. She also ran third earlier this year in the French One Thousand Guineas and has been very good at a mile. Kelina and Sauterne both offer significant appeal and could be nice value bets.

One U.S.-based contender I expect to outrun his odds is Exaulted. He won his first four starts of the year at a mile on the turf at Santa Anita, including a win in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes. He was beaten by 2 ¼ lengths as the favorite in the Del Mar Mile Stakes Sept. 2 but he’s back on his favorite turf course here and figures to run well at appealing odds.