Fall racing returns to Keeneland as the annual October season gets ready to open for its 17-raceday meet from Friday, Oct. 6 to Saturday, Oct. 28. Keeneland will attract big fields and quality horses to offer the kind of racing and wagering that befits the world epicenter of Thoroughbred horse racing in Lexington, Ky.

Keeneland’s 22 fall stakes races will offer combined purses of $9.05 million and will include six Grade 1 races – five of which are run on opening “Fall Stars Weekend,” Oct. 6-8. The Keeneland fall meet also will be extremely important in terms of the Breeders’ Cup with Fall Stars Weekend hosting eight Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” races.

As good as Keeneland’s stakes offerings are, half of them will be over after opening weekend and Keeneland offers three great weeks of racing, thus the season is not only about stakes races. The day-to-day Wednesday-thru-Sunday race cards offered by the track will offer something for all horseplayers including top 2-year-old racing, great turf racing, and top-class races with big fields at all levels.

Keeneland Main Track Trends

Keeneland’s race meet comes and goes fast, so the time is now for handicappers to start brushing up on the things they need to know to cash tickets at the fall season’s marquee race meet.

2022 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Eclipse Sportswire)

Let’s start by looking at sprints in order to find the preferred Keeneland main track running styles. In dirt sprints, horses would seem to have their best chances to win by staying within 1.5 lengths of the lead at the first call. In 144 dirt sprints run at the last two Keeneland meets (2022 fall meet and 2023 spring meet), 84 were won by horses on or close to the pace for 58%. Stalkers won 36 of the races for 25% and late runners racing four or more lengths of the lead won 24 races for 17%.

In dirt route races, it was more of the same in terms of preferred running styles at the last two Keeneland meets. Horses on or close to the pace won 39 of the 78 – exactly half – dirt routes. Stalkers won 26 (33%) and closers won 15 of the races (19%). Based on these stats in both sprints and routes therefore, a horses’ chances of winning seem to decrease based on how far off the pace the horse will be in the race.

Keeneland often features a good rail on the main track and handicappers need to factor that into their picks. This is most evident in dirt routes where horses breaking from inside posts 1-3 won 40 of the 78 races at the last two meets.

Horses can win dirt sprints from anywhere in the starting gate but do be aware that the inside posts 1-3 offered no advantage in dirt sprints since the 2022 Keeneland fall meet. As a matter of fact, in those dirt sprints it was post positions 7 and outward that did the best with 54 of the 144 dirt sprint winners coming from those outside draws accounting for wins in 38% of the races.

Keeneland Fall Turf Tips

One of the staples of the quality day-to-day racing at Keeneland is competitive turf racing, which features big fields and plenty of value on the tote board.

Turf racing at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

In terms of running style preferences in Keeneland turf routes, all running styles have been successful, but the late runners statistically have done the best at the last two meets. In 76 turf routes run at the 2022 fall meet and 2023 spring meet, late runners coming from at least four lengths off the pace won 31 of the races (41%). Next best were horses on or close to the pace with 25 wins in those 76 races. Stalkers won 20 times accounting for wins in only 26% of the races. Closers seem to have their best chance on the grass in races at 1 1/8 miles and beyond.

In addition to running styles, post positions can be important to consider when handicapping Keeneland grass routes, but perhaps not in the way you might think. Handicappers tend to downgrade outside posts in turf routes, but that means there are lots of live overlays to be found out there because at the last two meets there was very little advantage in having an inside post in turf routes. This is true at distances other than one mile (see below). With an average field size of 10.61 starters in 76 races, horses from posts 1-3 won 29 of the races (38%), middle posts 4-6 won 23 of the races (30%), and posts 7 and outward won 24 of the races (32%). This means if you see overlay odds on live horses with outside draws, you should go ahead and take your chances.

The one distance where you really do want to pay attention to post positions in turf routes is at the distance of one mile, where the outside can, in fact, be a disadvantage. At the 2022 spring meet, horses breaking from posts 10 and out went winless from 48 starters. At the last two meets in fall 2022 and spring 2023 the stats weren’t quite that stark, but inside posts 1-3 did yield the winners of 13 of the 26 turf races run at the distance.

Keeneland doesn’t card very many turf sprints. There were only a total of 26 turf sprints run at the 2022 fall and 2023 spring meets combined, and the sample size is so small that it makes it difficult to get an accurate read. For example, horses drawn in posts 7 and outward did the best when won 13 of the 26 turf sprints. That’s in contrast to the 2022 spring meet where 12 of the 15 winners broke from posts 1-5 and horses drawn in posts 8 and out went a combined 1-for-55.

Keeneland Fall Meet Jockeys to Watch

Gaffalione interviewed after win at spring meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

At the recently concluded Churchill Downs September meet, the jockey title was won in a runaway by Tyler Gaffalione, who rode 27 winners from 98 mounts. Gaffalione has won many of the Kentucky meet titles the last several years and was far ahead of the next winningest riders, who were Cristian Torres with 12 wins (18%) and Julien Leparoux with 10 wins (30%). Gerardo Corrales and Rafael Bejarano each won eight races

In the jock’s room at the corresponding Keeneland 2022 fall meet, jockey Luiz Saez unexpectedly won the riding title 21 wins to 20 over Gaffalione. Saez is returning from injury for the start of the meet, but Gaffalione remains the favorite to win the 2023 Keeneland fall meet title.

The remainder of the Keeneland 2022 fall meet top five was Joel Rosario with 13 wins, Florent Geroux with 12 wins, and Ricardo Santana Jr. with 9 wins. Rosario’s 13 wins were notable because they came from only 56 mounts for a 23% win percentage.

Fall Stars weekend will feature leading riders from around the country in Lexington to ride the various stakes. After that, expect Gaffalione to take over as leading rider with Rosario, Geroux, Santana, Torres, Corrales, and Bejarano occupying other spots in the top 10 in the standings.

Keeneland Leading Trainer Trends

Cox at Keeneland spring meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Brad Cox won the training title at the recently concluded Churchill Downs September meet, where he won 16 races from 44 starters for 36%. Ken McPeek was next way back with six winners. Gregory Foley had a big meet with five wins from 14 starters for a percentage of 36%.

The complexion of the trainers ranks at the Keeneland fall meet is obviously a lot different than it is at Churchill in September. Cox also was the winner of the corresponding Keeneland fall meet in 2022 with 11 wins, but it was no runaway as big guns like Todd Pletcher and Wesley Ward were close behind with 10 wins. Pletcher’s win percentage was 28% and Ward’s win percentage was 33%. Graham Motion was also amongst the leaders in win percentage with 5 wins from 18 starters for 28%. Other trainers in addition to Cox, Pletcher, Ward, McPeek, and Foley who could be expected to finish in the Keeneland fall top 10 include Mike Maker, Steve Asmussen, and Brendan Walsh.

Chad Brown, meanwhile, was not as successful as you might expect at last year’s Keeneland fall meet. His horses had 3 wins from 17 starters for a disappointing 18%. Brown sends good horses to Keeneland but for the most part his “A” team stays in New York.

For handicappers, aside from Brown, some of the other trainers who had disappointing seasons at the corresponding Keeneland fall meet in 2022 included Mark Casse (2-for-22), Ian Wilkes (2-for-30), Rusty Arnold (1-for-26), Joe Sharp (1-for-18), and D. Wayne Lukas (0-for-20).

Hopefully these tips and trends from Keeneland can help you have a successful meet in the fall of 2023. Enjoy the season, and best of luck.