Finding value when betting on horse racing is all about finding an angle others might have missed or zigging when other bettors are zagging, because in a pari-mutuel wagering pool it is your opinion against the other gamblers. That’s the focus in mapping out a strategy for the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes on Sunday at Woodbine.

The worst-kept secret in Thoroughbred racing in recent years is just how dominant Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has been with runners he ships over to the United States.

According to Equineline stats, Appleby has amassed 21 wins from 50 North American starters since the start of 2021, including 15 Grade 1 wins, and his runners have finished in the top three a remarkable 74% of the time (37 of 50). He ships to win and that absolutely has been the case at Woodbine where he has six wins and one third with seven starters in 2022 and 2023, including Master of The Seas’ victory in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Sept. 16.

Appleby is sending over a pair of runners to compete at Woodbine on Sunday: Nations Pride in the $750,000 Canadian International Stakes and With The Moonlight (#4) in the $750,000 E. P. Taylor Stakes.

While I believe Nations Pride to be formidable in the Canadian International, I’m significantly less enthused about With The Moonlight’s chances in the E. P. Taylor. The 3-1 second choice on the morning line, With The Moonlight has shipped over to North America four times before and has just one win to show for it. Given the expected low odds, my plan is to try and beat With The Moonlight and reigning Canadian Horse of the Year Moira (#6), the 5-2 morning-line favorite, with a filly who should offer far more appealing odds.

Aspen Grove (Michael Burns/Woodbine Photo)

I landed on Aspen Grove (#5), an Irish-bred 3-year-old filly by Justify who started out her career in Europe with trainer James Stack. Owned and bred by Craig Bernick’s Glen Hill Farm, which races primarily in the U.S., Aspen Grove won a Group 3 stakes in Ireland and placed in another and was thought highly enough of that she competed in the Irish One Thousand Guineas. She was unplaced in the Irish classic, but prominent owner Susan Magnier purchased an interest in her after that start and she subsequently shipped over to New York and won the Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes by three-quarters of a length in July. The key to that win was a blistering final quarter-mile in about 22 3/5 seconds while navigating the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the E. P. Taylor.

Aspen Grove then faced off against males in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes on yielding turf and finished fifth in a race that probably will scare off quite a few Woodbine bettors. She should get firmer ground on Sunday in her first start for new trainer Jack Sisterson, and returning to a race restricted to females, albeit older ones as well, should aid her chances at very appealing odds of 20-1 on the Woodbine morning line.

This is a loaded field with Appleby’s With The Moonlight sure to attract attention as will 2022 Canadian Horse of the Year Moira coming off 6 ¼-length romp in a Grade 2 on the Woodbine turf. There also are three entrants from the potent barn of trainer Chad Brown, two from Christophe Clement’s barn, and one each from Hall of Fame trainers Shug McGaughey and Mark Casse. My expectation is to get terrific value on Aspen Grove, hopefully even higher than 20-1, and make a win bet my strategy.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #5 Aspen Grove

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 7, $10 to win on #5

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$30 to win on #5 Aspen Grove

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 7, $30 to win on #5