Better late than never, the $3 million, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodward Reserve will finally take place on Saturday, Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs, four months later than its traditional date on the first Saturday in May.

The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down, with the postponement of the Kentucky Derby just one of many changes in sport of horse racing. The postponement, in turn, has had a substantial impact on the complexion of the Kentucky Derby field, with #17 Tiz the Law rising from a merely talented colt into one of the heaviest Derby favorites in decades.

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Had the Kentucky Derby taken place in May, Tiz the Law might have been a slim favorite based off an easy triumph in the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby, a race that has produced five Kentucky Derby winners since 2006. But the New York-bred colt continued to progress through the spring and summer, cruising to success in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets before decimating six rivals by 5 ½  lengths in the Grade 1 Runhappy Travers Stakes.

Winning the Belmont Stakes has given Tiz the Law a shot at sweeping the reconfigured 2020 Triple Crown, and winning the Travers – over the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles, no less – has stamped the son of Constitution as a truly elite talent. After tracking the early pace, Tiz the Law pounced to the lead on the far turn and powered clear with authority down the homestretch, sprinting the final quarter-mile in a rapid :24.53 to reach the finish line in 2:00.95 – the fifth-fastest Travers in history.

Unsurprisingly, Tiz the Law earned massive speed figures for his romp in the Travers. A 109 Beyer and a 115 Brisnet Speed rating have established Tiz the Law as a formidable favorite. If he enters the starting gate at his 3-5 morning line odds, he’ll become the shortest-priced Kentucky Derby favorite since Spectacular Bid in 1979, a well-deserved honor considering the depth and breadth of Tiz the Law’s glittering résumé.

That’s not to say Tiz the Law will be facing easy competition at Churchill Downs. To the contrary, he could face a meaningful challenge from #16 Honor A. P., who posted a 102 Beyer and 108 Brisnet Speed rating when running away with the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with longshot Giacomo, and Honor A. P. – a beautifully-bred runner with a powerful stretch kick – has been training up a storm in advance of Sept. 5.

Honor A. P. (Coady Photography)

This is significant because Honor A. P. was short of peak fitness when beaten to second place with a wide trip in the Aug. 1 Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. The son of Honor Code had taken things easy in the two months following his Santa Anita Derby triumph, and the Shared Belief was primarily a steppingstone to propel Honor A. P. toward a peak effort on the first Saturday in September. With Smith in the saddle, Honor A. P. has really stepped up the pace of his recent morning workouts, suggesting he’ll be ready for a much-improved effort at Churchill Downs.

But as talented as Honor A. P. might be, he hasn’t run quite as fast on the speed figure scales as Tiz the Law, and toppling the favorite will be a difficult task. With his perfect blend of tactical speed and finishing power, Tiz the Law figures to enjoy a perfect trip in the run for the roses. The last seven horses to cross the wire first in the Kentucky Derby all secured forward positions, racing no further behind than third place while staying clear of traffic and kickback. Tiz the Law will aim to employ identical tactics, and if he runs in the Derby like he did in the Travers… who can beat him?

But here’s the problem – betting Tiz the Law to win at a short price isn’t a great play because the return on investment will be minimal. If he starts at 3-5, even a $20 win bet will return just $32 – not even a double-your-money payoff.

Some bettors will turn to exotic wagers in search of a bigger payoff, spreading deep with complicated trifecta and superfecta tickets in hopes of catching a couple of longshots underneath the favorite. But this could be a risky strategy too; if Honor A. P. finishes second as expected, even the superfecta payoff could be diminished.

So I’m going to suggest a single, straightforward strategy for making money betting Tiz the Law in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than spread deep with trifecta and superfecta tickets, I recommend playing Tiz the Law over Honor A.P. in a straight exacta. You can choose whatever amount you feel comfortable betting, but I’m confident a $20 ticket will return at least 5-1, or $120. If you ask me, that’s a pretty solid return on investment for playing a couple of clear-cut favorites.

Wagering Strategy

$20 exacta: 17 with 16

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 14th race, $20 exacta 17 with 16

Good luck, and enjoy the race!