Dan's Double: Swinging for the Fences on Del Mar Turf

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Horses race on the turf course at Del Mar in this file photo. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, July 25

Del Mar, Race 9, $150,000 San Clemente Stakes, 9 p.m. ET

weekend TV schedule

Friday, July 24: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, July 25: 1-3:30 p.m. ET on FS2; 3:30-7 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, July 26: 1-3 p.m. ET on FS1; 3-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

#7 Little Bird (Ire): Going for an absolute bomb here with the expectation that the race might fall apart from a pace perspective. What I mean by that is that I see at least two horses who potentially might be vying for the lead early, along with a few others who are typically forwardly placed (including the stretching-out #1 She’s So Special down on the rail) who will very likely add a bit more fuel to that pace. I think the race really sets up for a deep closer and Little Bird is a horse who has shown some flashes of ability. She won at this distance in the U.K. before making her U.S. debut, which looks worse on paper than it was in reality. Had she been tipped out for clear running, she would’ve finished no worse than third in that race and within a few lengths of Laura’s Light, who has been installed as the morning-line favorite in this race. When they first met, Laura’s Light was able to run a loose and comfortable pace. I don’t see that happening again on Saturday. Little Bird comes in fresh off of a 4 ½-month break for one of the sharpest trainers at Del Mar, Richie Baltas. This horse is live and is going to be flying late at a big price. Let’s see what kind of price we end up getting.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place, show on #7 Little Bird ($6)

$2 exacta box: 1,7 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #7 Little Bird ($12)

$2 exacta box: 1,7 ($4)

$.50 trifecta key box 7 with 1,5,11 ($9)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$7 win, place, show on #7 Little Bird ($21)

$6 exacta 7 with 1 ($6)

$2 exacta 1 with 7 ($2)

$1 trifecta key box 7 with 1,5,11 ($18)

$.50 trifecta key 3 with 1,5,7 ($3)

Del Mar, Race 11, 10 p.m. ET

#4 Nocherylikemychery: This horse turned a corner two races back when she broke her maiden (won her first race) at Santa Anita. She’s a very handy horse and seems to be able to comfortably rate. In her last race, her rider perhaps got too comfortable because he really just sat and waited for a hole to open. Had he made an earlier move, Nocherylikemychery certainly wouldn’t have lost by 3 1/2 lengths to California Kook. That horse, by the way, came back to finish second in stakes company and then second again in open allowance company (much tougher horses than this). If she can get a little pace to run into and moves a little earlier than last time, Nocherylikemychery should have a legitimate shot at winning this race.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$4 win, place, show on #4 Nocherylikemychery ($12)

$2 exacta box: 2,4 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place, show on #4 Nocherylikemychery ($12)

$1 trifecta 2,4 with 2,4,7,8 with 2,4,7,8 (#12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place, show on #4 Nocherylikemychery ($24)

$1 trifecta 2,4 with 2,4,7,8 with 2,4,7,8 (#12)

$6 exacta 4 with 2 ($6)

$1 exacta key box 4 with 1,7,8,12 ($8)

Last Week’s Earnings: $51.00

2020 Earnings: $3,598.83

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