Dan’s Double: Independence Day Prices at Belmont

Gambling
Turf racing at Belmont Park. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, July 4, Belmont Park, Race 2, post time 1:49 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, July 2: 1-2:20 and 4:30-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Friday, July 3: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, July 4: 1-7 p.m. ET on FS1; 5-6 p.m. ET on NBC; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, July 5: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

#3 Memories of Peter (12-1): I never thought I’d go back to the well with this one, but here we are. If you’ve followed New York racing for any extended period of time, you’ve seen Memories of Peter climb up and down the class ladder, showing up in some races and then not showing up in others. I’ve been behind him for a lot of those underwhelming performances but I’m hopeful we’ll catch on the right day here. To be fair, two of his three starts last year were pretty strong efforts. He’s been off since October but trainer Robert Falcone hits at nearly 30% coming back with horses off of a long break like this. As always, the most important factor for Memories of Peter will be competing pace. His best efforts have just about all come when he’s on or near the front end without much pressure. I’m not seeing any other bona fide speedsters, so here’s planning for the 8-year-old to get loose and take them all the way.

$10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #3 Memories of Peter ($6)

$1 exacta key box 3 with 1,6 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #3 Memories of Peter ($12)

$3 exacta 3 with 1 ($3)

$1 exacta key box 3 with 1,2,4,6,7 ($10)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #3 Memories of Peter ($24)

$4 exacta 3 with 1 ($4)

$1 exacta key box 3 with 1,2,4,6,7 ($10)

$1 trifecta 1,3 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,6 ($12)

Saturday, July 4, Belmont Park, Race 8, $150,000 Poker Stakes, post time 5:13 p.m. ET

#1 Dream Friend (8-1): This is another total pace play for me. Unless I’m missing something, Dream Friend has drawn the rail here as the lone speed horse in a field that’s deep yet still filled with a number of runners who come in with question marks. Let’s look back at the last three times Dream Friend caught a firm track going a mile at Belmont. Last June, he won a first-level allowance race, beating a next-out winner. Five months later, he was beaten a little over a length in a race where he was forced to sit off the pace set by another horse (that won’t happen in this race). Last out, he yielded a lead late to two horses, including returning foe #9 Value Proposition. But it’s important to note that Dream Friend had to contend with a loose horse weaving around him down the backstretch and turning for home. Perhaps that was one of the reasons Dream Friend set super-fast fractions despite being at least a length clear of any other runner most of the way around. Look for him to get to the lead easily here and hopefully settle down a bit more. That should leave the others with plenty to do late if they want to catch him.

$10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #1 Dream Friend ($6)

$2 exacta box 1,3 ($4)

$25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #1 Dream Friend ($12)

$6 exacta 1 with 3 ($6)

$2 exacta 3 with 1 ($2)

$5 double 1 with 5 ($5)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #1 Dream Friend ($24)

$8 exacta 1 with 3 ($8)

$4 exacta 3 with 1 ($4)

$.50 trifecta 1,3,9 with 1,3,7,9 with 1,3,7,9 ($9)

$5 double 1 with 5 ($5)

Last Week’s Earnings: $52.50

2020 Earnings: $3,523.83

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