Pigskins and Ponies: Road Underdogs, Santa Anita Sprint Play

Gambling

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Tennessee Titans +7 (-120) @ Los Angeles Chargers:  

This game has seen the largest market change over the past week, with the Chargers going from -3 on the look-ahead lines, out to the current number. The boys from Bet the Board are high on the Chargers this year, and when they grab some guys back from injury they’ll be a real contender, but Tennessee has the potential to have a strong game on the ground, as the Chargers will be the worst run defense they will have played all year (Tennessee has played the toughest schedule of defenses all year). There is still inflation in this number, and grabbing the 7 points with Tennessee is the value side.

New York Giants +6 @ Atlanta Falcons:

The Giants couldn’t have been worse Thursday Night against the Philadelphia Eagles, and Atlanta won and covered against the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This line last week was Falcons -3.5, but not much has changed to warrant this type of move. Atlanta still ranks 31st in defensive efficiency and has injuries up and down the roster. The Giants have had 11 days off, and typically struggle against teams who can generate a pass rush. Atlanta is 28th in adjusted sack rate, and has been one of the worst teams defending running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. RB Saquon Barkley could have a big day here, and the New York Giants +6 is the side.

Mississippi State +7 (-115) @ LSU:

The Bulldogs come into this game with a week of extra prep time, while LSU is faced with their third straight monster SEC game in a row. LSU has climbed up to No. 5 in the AP Poll, but they’ve only had a yards-per-play margin of +0.4. Mississippi State should be able to pressure Joe Burrow and limit the LSU rushing offense. On the offensive end, the Bulldogs can move the line of scrimmage and generate yards on the ground. This number last week would have been a coupe points shorter, as we’ve seen some inflation after LSU’s resounding win against Georgia. Mississippi State could pull the upset here.

N.C. State @ Clemson Over 55.5:  

Both teams come into this matchup undefeated, and both teams have a quarterback who can push the ball downfield. N.C. State ranks ninth in the country with 9.4 yards per attempt, and they’re first in third-down conversion percentage. The weakest point on a very strong Clemson team is its secondary, which ranks in the bottom half in defensive passing efficiency. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence should have success as well, as the Wolfpack allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Add in a possible slick surface with rain in the forecast overnight and into the early morning, and the early move on this total from 53.5 to the current number at BetOnline.AG is not the least bit surprising.   

Best Bet: [403] Mississippi State +7 (-115)


Ponies

Saturday, Oct. 20

Santa Anita Park, Race 5, California Flag Handicap, 5:30 p.m. ET

Tribalist (#1) was not able to make the lead last time out behind some classy runners and did not appear to be handling the turf course well. He’s had some time off, has a bullet workout, and should be able to show more speed over this firm turf course at Santa Anita.

Sunday, Oct. 21

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7:13 p.m. ET

Inland Empire (#6) finished evenly for fourth as the betting favorite last time out for this same claiming price at Los Alamitos. She was claimed off of that race and now returns for a new barn while showing two workouts since then. She's adding the blinkers on today and returns to the track where she broke her maiden.

Total picks: 14

Total winners:  1

Total money returned with $2 to win on each pick: $-20.20

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