Pigskins and Ponies: Colts-Cowboys Pick, Inside Speed at Los Alamitos

Gambling

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens Under 47:

This total opened 47.5 at BetOnline.AG and has since ticked down to 47 as limits have risen throughout the week. Baltimore did an excellent job against the Kansas City Chiefs offense, holding them to 17 points until Patrick Mahomes miraculous throw on 4th down late in the game (total closed 48.5). Meanwhile, the most efficient way to attack Tampa’s defense is through the air, and right now Lamar Jackson isn’t exactly slicing and dicing opponents through the air.  The strength of the Tampa defense is their line, and the thought is they can slow Baltimore down some. With bad weather looming, under 47 has some value.

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-120):   

The Colts were a pick’em on the look-ahead line, and have moved out to -2.5 juiced. Is it too much of an adjustment? Not this time. Indianapolis has slowly morphed into one of the most efficient offensive units, and their defense is starting to come around as well (fifth in defensive rush efficiency, and 11th in total defensive efficiency). Dallas has played three HUGE games in a row (Washington, New Orleans, Philadelphia), gaining a monster edge on the NFC East during that span. The Colts are still fighting for their playoff lives, and Andrew Luck should have success as his offensive line protects against a talented Dallas front.

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills ML (-125):  

Uh … Buffalo? BUFFALO? Yes, the Bills may have been on the “do not bet” list at the beginning of the year, but the defense has been solid (third overall in defensive efficiency), and Josh Allen has used his legs to help improve the Bills offense. The Lions have faced four teams ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, and have yet to grab a win. Despite the 4-9 record, one undeniable trait of the Bills under coach Sean McDermott, is they play HARD, and the effort is never questioned. Buffalo opened PICK, and we agree with the move on the home team here. There’s also a dramatic edge in Orchard Park this time of year for Buffalo, especially with a dome team coming to town.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110):  

San Francisco cashed against the Denver Broncos and got Bet the Board podcast listeners to the window in Week 14, and we’re seeing almost identical line movement this week. The number opened +6, and has since dropped to +4.5 despite Seattle’s rather large (deceiving) margin of victory Monday Night against Minnesota. These teams played two weeks ago, and Seattle won by 27, though San Francisco turned the ball over three times in crucial spots on the field. Sharp money gobbled the +10 in Seattle, and pros are coming back for more this week. Look for the 49ers to stuff the run and get their revenge.

Best Bet: [314] Indianapolis -2.5 (-120)


Ponies

Saturday, Dec. 15

Los Alamitos Race Course, Race 5, Soviet Problem Stakes, 5:28 p.m. ET

#1 Hotitude (3-1 odds) chased a solid pace for the distance last time out and could only hold on for third after making the lead in the stretch. She’s got plenty of speed and that is her main weapon from this inside post. There is a short run into the first turn, and I expect her to try to steal the race on the front end with a good start.

Sunday, Dec. 16

Los Alamitos Race Course, Race 9, 7:15 p.m. ET

#8 Out of Patience (4-1 odds) lost a tough stretch battle against fellow entrant Twirling Tiger last time out, but I think he’s in a good spot to turn the tables on him today. I like the outside post position and he should be able to track the speed early on and get a trouble-free trip.

Total picks: 30

Total winners: 3

Total money returned with $2 to win on each pick: $-35.60

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