When the dust settled and all of the prep races for the $1 million, Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs were complete, two fillies stood far above the others atop the leader board of qualifiers: #10 Midnight Bisou with 160 points and #14 Monomoy Girl with 154 points.

The reason for this is simple – Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl are by far the most accomplished fillies in the race, each of them having three stakes victories to their credit. And when I analyze the field for the Kentucky Oaks, I can’t help but think that they’re the most talented fillies as well, with a big chance to run first and second on Friday.

Midnight Bisou (BENOIT photo)

If not for two nose defeats at the start of her career, Midnight Bisou would be unbeaten in five starts – she’s never been part of a race in which she didn’t contend for victory. And those early frustrations have been forgotten now that Midnight Bisou has gone 3-for-3 this year, winning the Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes, the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks (all at Santa Anita Park) by a minimum of 2 ¼ lengths. Trained by Bill Spawr, Midnight Bisou’s late-running style is reminiscent of her champion sire Midnight Lute. If necessary, though, Midnight Bisou can race close to the early pace – just look at her effort in the Santa Ynez, in which she sat in second early on while chasing a quick pace going seven-eighths of a mile.

But Monomoy Girl will be Midnight Bisou’s most formidable rival to date. The daughter of Tapizar is just a neck away from being unbeaten in six starts, and like Midnight Bisou, she’s been perfect in 2018, scoring remarkably easy victories in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds and the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Monomoy Girl is her versatility – in the Rachel Alexandra, she rallied from dead last after a poor start, while in the Ashland, she won in gate-to-wire fashion.

With their top-notch form this year and strong speed figures, I think Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl will be very tough to beat in the Kentucky Oaks. So in betting the race, I think a simple strategy could be the best approach. Rather than try to sort out the remaining contenders to seek a score in the trifecta and superfecta (which could be easier said than done), let’s box Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl in the exacta – as long as they run 1-2, we’ll be winners.

Wagering Strategy

$10 exacta: 10,14 with 10,14 ($20)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!