Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Sunday, May 7

Santa Anita Park, Race 4, 5:30 p.m. ET

#2 Kitty Union (12-1): She debuted at Del Mar last summer against a solid group of fillies and finished a well-beaten sixth in a field of 10, but she hasn't raced since. I like that she has race experience and that she’s been given time to mature. There are some good workouts leading up to today’s race and trainer Richard Mandella does well when horses are coming off of a break like this. I think she’s in a good spot to show plenty of improvement.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 Win on Kitty Union ($2)

$2 Exacta: 2 with 7,8 ($4)

$1 Exacta: 5,6,7,8 with 2 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$5 Win on Kitty Union ($5)

$1 Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,7,8 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 ($20)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$2 Win on Kitty Union ($2)

$1 Trifecta: 2 with 5,6,7,8 with 3,5,6,7,8 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 3,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 5,6,7,8 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 5,6,7,8 with 3,5,6,7,8 with 2 ($16)

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7:30 p.m. ET

#2 Nine Point Nine (10-1): I like her speed but I don’t like how fast she’s been going early on in her last couple of starts. I like the switch back to jockey Rafael Bejarano who was aboard for her most recent victory. She’s breaking toward the inside of a runner that tends to break slow and that should allow her to get to the lead without much asking from her jockey.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 Win on Nine Point Nine ($2)

$2 Exacta: 2 with 6,7 ($4)

$1 Exacta: 3,6,7,11 with 2 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$5 Win on Nine Point Nine ($5)

$1 Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6,7 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,11 ($20)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$2 Win on Nine Point Nine ($2)

$1 Trifecta: 2 with 3,6,7,11 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 3,4,6,7,11 with 2 with 3,6,7,11 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 3,6,7,11 with 3,4,6,7,11 with 2 ($16)

ROI Year to date: $10,092 wagered/$9,916.41 returned