Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Los Ponies Longshots

Saturday, Jan. 7

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7 p.m. ET

#7 My Palmilla (10-1): Her record doesn’t appear all that good on paper but there’s been some legitimate excuses for her off efforts. If you ignore her two races against stakes competition, her running lines look much better. I like that she was a debut winner and I thought her latest effort was a decent third. I think she will run much better this time around given that this will be just her third race since July. Her best effort was on this track and the rider from that win is back aboard today.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win on My Palmilla ($2)

$1 exacta: 7 with 2,5,8,9 ($4)

$1 exacta: 2,5,8,9 with 7 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win on My Palmilla ($10)

$1 exacta: 5,7,8 with 1,2,5,7,8,9 ($15)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$2 exacta: 7 with 1,2,5,8,9 ($10)

$1 trifecta: 7 with 1,2,5,8,9 with 1,2,5,8,9 ($20)

$1 trifecta: 1,2,5,8,9 with 7 with 1,2,5,8,9 ($20)

Sunday, Jan. 8

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, 7:30 p.m. ET

#11 Gutsy Effort (12-1): I’ve been waiting for this gelding to show back up on the entries ever since his troubled debut back in February. He broke slow and was last throughout before passing every horse except the winner, despite traffic trouble. It was a visually impressive effort considering all the trouble he had. Trainer Mike Puype is very good at bringing them back off a break like this.                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win on Gutsy Effort ($2)

$1 exacta: 11 with 2,5,6,9 ($4)

$1 exacta: 2,5,6,9 with 11 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win on Gutsy Effort ($10)

$1 exacta: 2,9,11 with 2,5,6,8,9,11 ($15)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$2 exacta: 11 with 2,5,6,8,9 ($10)

$1 trifecta: 11 with 2,5,6,8,9 with 2,5,6,8,9 ($20)

$1 trifecta: 2,5,6,8,9 with 11 with 2,5,6,8,9 ($20)