Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Saturday, Jan. 28

Santa Anita Park, Race 6, Donald Valpredo California Cup Sprint, 5:21 p.m. ET

#5 Well Measured (8-1): This gelding has earned close to a quarter of a million dollars and has fired a good effort in all his sprints. He was a debut winner here at Santa Anita three years ago, and he’s shown versatility by winning on the lead or from off the pace. I like that trainer Richard Baltas claimed him last time and now steps him up to stakes competition. There is plenty of early speed in this field, so I expect this runner to make his move late in the race.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win on Well Measured ($2)

$2 exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($4)

$1 exacta: 1,2,6,7 with 5 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$9 win on Well Measured ($9)

$1 trifecta: 1,5 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,7 ($16)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$2 win on Well Measured ($2)

$1 trifecta: 5 with 1,2,6,7 with 1,2,4,6,7 ($16)

$1 trifecta: 1,2,6,7 with 5 with 1,2,4,6,7 ($16)

$1 trifecta: 1,2,4,6,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 5 ($16)

Sunday, Jan. 29

Santa Anita Park, Race 1, 3:30 p.m. ET

#2 Lady Beware (8-1): I liked the way she won last time when settling toward the back of the pack chasing steady fractions. She finished strongly and passed them all to win nicely under this same jockey. I think she will be positioned closer to the leaders today given this is only a field of seven. She ran well against stakes company at Del Mar back in September. There’s some talent here and I think she’s still improving.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win on Lady Beware ($2)

$1 exacta: 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 ($6)

$1 exacta: 2,3 with 2,3  ($2)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win on Lady Beware ($10)

$1 exacta: 2,3,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 ($15)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$2 win on Lady Beware ($2)

$1 trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6,7 ($16)

$1 trifecta: 1,3,4,6 with 2 with 1,3,4,6,7 ($16)

$1 trifecta: 1,3,4,6,7 with 1,3,4,6 with 2 ($16)

ROI to date: $8,052 wagered/$5,988.01 returned