Los Ponies Longshots: Pair of Promising Maidens

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Sunday, May 21

Santa Anita Park, Race 5, 6 p.m. ET

#5 Dixie Crystal (8-1): Her fourth-place finish in her debut was solid. She broke from the rail and showed good speed to be part of the pace. She had to steady twice and that caused her to lose all momentum. I thought it cost her at least a second-place finish. Her connections liked what they saw and tried tougher company last time out with no success. She’s now back at the same level as her debut, and she should be competitive here.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 Win on Dixie Crystal ($2)

$2 Exacta: 5 with 2,4 ($4)

$1 Exacta: 1,2,4,6 with 5 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$5 Win on Dixie Crystal ($5)

$1 Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 ($20)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$2 Win on Dixie Crystal ($2)

$1 Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 1,2,3,4,6 with 5 with 1,2,4,6 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 1,2,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 5 ($16)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, 7 p.m. ET

#2 Spinyatta (15-1): She debuted over the tricky downhill turf course early last month and I consider that race a good educational debut. She’s worked four times since that race and I think there’s plenty of room to improve. Trainer does well with horses moving into a claiming tag for the first time and this runner fits that scenario.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 Win on Spinyatta ($2)

$2 Exacta: 2 with 1,6 ($4)

$1 Exacta: 1,3,5,6 with 2 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$5 Win on Spinyatta ($5)

$1 Trifecta: 2,6 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 ($20)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$2 Win on Spinyatta ($2)

$1 Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6  ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 1,3,4,5,6 with 2 with 1,3,5,6 ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 1,3,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 2 ($16)

ROI Year to date: $10,432 wagered/$9,916.41 returned

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