America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.

For some posts, Vág will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.

This Weekend’s Bets

Saturday, Sept. 30

Longshot Play

Gulfstream Park, Race 4, Mr. Steele Stakes, 1:25 p.m. ET

#2 Orpheus: This horse recently shipped in from Brazil, where he’s found a lot of success within the group stakes ranks. You often see huge efforts with shippers trying Lasix (furosemide) for the first time as well as success with the smaller fields accompanying most North American races. He’s been working out at Gulfstream Park since the end of August, which leads me to believe connections are hoping to use this as a prep race and eventually plan to try his luck within the graded stakes ranks here. Looking for physical tells and indicators before post time are always helpful to see how horses are taking to the change of scenery and new surface.

Best Bet

Belmont Park, Race 5, 2:48 p.m. ET

#3 Favorable Outcome: I think the only reason he’s entered against such a weak field is to ease him back into racing after being away for seven months. There’s something to be said about his success in the graded stakes ranks, and I think his best distance is sprinting, so he will appreciate the shorter distance today. There will be more than enough pace up front, so I expect him to be looming as a big threat around the final turn.

Best Bet

Belmont Park, Race 10, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, 5:45 p.m. ET

#5 Beach Patrol: First off, we have to try and figure out who will take well to this distance because 1 ½ miles is a testing distance for any horse. This colt has been within two lengths of winning in his last nine straight graded stakes, and I expect no different today. The pace should be honest, and I think he will be sitting third or fourth early in prime striking position to run down the front-runners late. Drawing toward the inside of a field of 11 should help solidify a ground-saving rail trip. He has favorable morning-line odds (5-1), and I expect him to be around those or higher at post.

Longshot Play

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, Rodeo Drive Stakes, 7:34 p.m. ET

#7 Beau Recall: After winning an allowance/optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park in early 2017 she’s been SO close to winning in both stakes and graded stakes races with four close second-place efforts. She’s shown she doesn’t have to spot the field that many lengths and she’s able to still show that powerful closing kick being positioned closer to the front. I like the jockey change to Rafael Bejarano - perhaps that will help wake this filly up a little and help her back to her winning ways.