Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the racehorses earn points toward qualifying. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Stronghold, a neck winner of the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6 at Santa Anita Park. The Ghostzapper colt earned 100 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and currently sits in fourth place on the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, thus guaranteeing him a spot in the starting gate.

Racing Résumé: Whether you like Stronghold’s chances in the Kentucky Derby or not, it’s clear from his career record and past performances that when he steps foot on a racetrack he is there to compete. The bay colt has amassed three wins and three seconds in six races with career earnings of $827,200, and Stronghold enters the first jewel of the Triple Crown off the two best starts of his career.

After closing out his juvenile campaign with a runner-up finish by a half-length behind Wynstock in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, Stronghold shipped to Sunland Park for his 2024 debut and dominated the $400,000 Sunland Park Derby by 2 ½ lengths Feb. 18. He followed with a game win by a neck over Imagination in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby April 6, his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby.

Stronghold has been especially effective since stretching out to two turns, with two wins and a second in route races. He also boasts a win on the main track at Churchill Downs, having earned his first career victory in his second start Oct. 1, 2023, going a mile. In that maiden win, Stronghold defeated future Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Resilience by 1 ½ lengths with Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes winner Track Phantom third.  

Stronghold has tracked close to a solid pace in his two most recent wins and finished reasonably well. In the Sunland Park Derby, he was second by a head after a half-mile in :47.45 and finished his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :31.32. He rated in fourth, 2 ½ lengths behind Tapalo’s opening half-mile in :46.73 in the Santa Anita Derby, and finished his final three-eighths of a mile in :38.75. Neither finishing time jumps out as an indicator that he’d be especially formidable at 1 ¼ miles but neither is disqualifying, either. He’ll need to run faster late to win the Kentucky Derby.

Speed Figures: Stronghold looks like a solid second-tier contender based upon speed figures. In a year when there have not been many fast races, you could argue it’s essentially Fierceness (and maybe Sierra Leone) and then most of the prospective field, including Stronghold, in a big pack behind the top two. He earned a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure for the Santa Anita Derby win and has improved his Equibase figure in each of his six starts. Stronghold matched his career-top Beyer Speed Figure of 89, pairing the figure he got for the Sunland Park Derby. His Ragozin Figures (lower is better) also are competitive if unspectacular: 10 ½ for the Sunland Derby and 9 ¼ for the Santa Anita Derby.

The big bright spot in terms of speed figures, in my opinion, is that Stronghold has pretty consistently improved and could be sitting on a significant jump in his third race of the year. He very likely will need a noteworthy leap to be a win candidate, but a smaller improvement would place him in the hunt for a top-three finish.

Running Style: One of Stronghold’s best traits is his high cruising speed. He’s at his best tucked right in behind the pacesetter. Stronghold has never been worse than fourth after a half-mile and has been first in early stretch in five of his six starts. With a clean break, Stronghold should be able to establish good early positioning and give himself a shot to win in the stretch if he’s good enough on May 4.

Connections: Stronghold was bred and is raced by Rick and Sharon Waller, a California-based husband and wife who have been involved in the Thoroughbred racing industry since the 1990s.

“Stronghold’s mother, Spectator, was our first graded stakes winner, and Spectator’s second dam, Swiss Diva, was our first graded stakes horse,” Rick Waller told BloodHorse in a terrific feature that outlined how the couple overcame heartbreak on a tumultuous path to breeding Stronghold.

Phil D’Amato is a California-based trainer best known for his knack with turf runners such as Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Obviously and Grade 1 winners like Bowies Hero, Midnight Storm, Gold Phoenix, Going Global, Count Again, and Hunt. Stronghold would be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.

Thrilled connections in the winner's circle. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Jockey Antonio Fresu is a native of Italy who began riding in his home country before moving to Dubai and then on to Southern California in 2023. He has established himself as a top-level rider on the West Coast, winning six graded stakes in 2023 and another three this year, including his first Grade 1 win in the Santa Anita Derby. Fresu also would be making his first start in the Kentucky Derby.

Pedigree Notes: Stronghold is from the 15^th crop of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, the track record-setting winner of that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Some of Ghostzapper’s best progeny include champion female sprinters Goodnight Olive and Judy the Beauty, 2021 Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide, 2022 Canadian Horse of the Year Moira, and Canadian champions Shaman Ghost, Holy Helena, Theodora B., and Hunters Bay.

Stronghold was produced by Grade 2-winning sprinter Spectator, by Jimmy Creed, who was able to carry her speed enough to run second to Midnight Bisou in the 2018 Santa Anita Oaks. The aforementioned Swiss Diva, a stakes winner and earner of $240,999, is Stronghold’s third dam (maternal great-grandmother).

Derby Potential: My instinct on Stronghold is that it would take a true breakout race from him to be a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby May 4 at Churchill Downs. I’m not sure he’s fast enough, but there are several significant factors in his favor.

Let’s start with consistency – Stronghold just really never runs a bad race and it was really nice to see him split horses late and outfinish highly regarded Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby.  

The Ghostzapper colt also has good tactical speed and a win on the main track at Churchill Downs, and he enters the most important race of his life making his third start of the year while on a pattern of improvement. He looks poised to run the best race of his life and in a year without a ton of speed-figure standouts, that could very well give Stronghold a puncher’s chance at winning the Kentucky Derby at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch.