Which 2024 Kentucky Derby Runners Would Most Benefit from a Wet Track?

Gambling
Mystik Dan, Southwest Stakes, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Eclipse Sportswire
Mystik Dan, above winning the Southwest Stakes on a muddy racetrack, profiles as perhaps the biggest beneficiary of an "off" track should rain soak Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day May 4. (Eclipse Sportswire)

If anyone is wondering about how much rain we had in the winter and fall, they need not check with the National Weather Service.

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, May 2: 1-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, May 3: 1-6 p.m. on USA Network; 1-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, May 4: 12-2:30 p.m. on USA Network; 2:30-7:30 p.m. on NBC; 2-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, May 5: 2-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Just peruse the past performances for Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs.

Of the 20 horses who qualified for the race, 13 of them have run on a wet track. That’s 65% of the field.

Taking it a step further, 7 have won on an “off” — or wet — surface for a 35% rate.

Digging deeper, four have won a stakes on a wet track (20%) and eight have placed in a stakes by finishing in the top three (40%).

With numbers like that it’s not surprising that the top contenders are no strangers to a wet surface. All five of the 3-year-olds priced at 10-1 or less have wet-track form.

Starting at the top of that list, favored Fierceness (5-2) had one big win the mud and one dud. He broke his maiden by 11 ¼ lengths at Saratoga last year on a muddy track and then in his second start finished seventh, beaten by 20 ¼ lengths, in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct on a sloppy track after a troubled start.

Sierra Leone, Risen Star Stakes, Eclipse Sportswire
Sierra Leone winning Risen Star on sloppy track. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Second choice Sierra Leone (5-2) won the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in February on a sloppy track after losing by a nose last year in the Remsen Stakes on a muddy track at Aqueduct to fellow Derby starter Dornoch (20-1). Track Phantom (20-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1), who are also entered in the opening leg of the Triple Crown, finished second and third, respectively, in the Risen Star.

The aforementioned Catching Freedom’s lone wet track start was the Risen Star, where the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner lost by 1 ¾ lengths.

Undefeated Japanese challenger Forever Young (10-1) has two wins on tracks rated “good” with some moisture in them, topped by a seven-length score in a $490,800 stakes for 2-year-olds in Japan.

Just a Touch (10-1) was second by two lengths in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on a sloppy track.

The horse who may be helped the most by a sloppy track figures to be Mystik Dan (20-1) who powered to an eight-length win in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park over trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ Derby entrant Just Steel (20-1).

Experience on a wet surface at Churchill Downs is a big advantage and three starters show that in their past performances, though none of them won. Just Steel was third in an allowance race last year, while Track Phantom second by a half-length in a maiden race and Honor Marie (20-1) was second in an allowance race as a 2-year-old.

Louisiana Derby runner-up Honor Marie was also fifth in the Risen Star, his lone finish worse than second in five career starts.

The other winner on muddy track is Society Man (50-1), who broke his maiden on a track rated muddy in early March. Second in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at 106-1 odds, he was eighth in the Withers Stakes on a muddy track, with both “off” track efforts coming at Aqueduct.

The rest with wet track form are Dornoch, who aside from the Remsen win was second on a sloppy track in his debut at Saratoga; Domestic Product (30-1), who was seventh in the Remsen; and Resilience (20-1), who was fourth in the Risen Star.

The two also-eligibles, Epic Ride and Mugatu, have yet to race on a wet surface.

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