Marquee events in Thoroughbred racing tend to produce the most compelling betting cards, and the 2024 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat card Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park ranks right up there with the best cards of racing in recent memory.
The 13 races Saturday at the Hallandale Beach, Fla. track drew a total of 166 entrants, but with the fields capped at 12 runners the 13 races average 11.38 runners per race with 10 full fields expected as well as one race with 10 runners and two with nine entrants. Simply put, these competitive fields offer a terrific opportunity to get paid for a strong opinion and that will be the goal here in analyzing the $500,000, Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes.
The 1 1/16-mile turf race for female racehorses 4 years old and older is led by morning-line favorite #4 Star Fortress (5-2) coming off a dominant 10-length romp in her U.S. debut in the Grade 3 Cardinal Stakes Nov. 23, 2023, at Churchill Downs along with defending Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf winner #8 Queen Goddess (6-1).
Star Fortress flashed star potential in the Cardinal, but the field was pretty soft as she faced only five challengers with modest credentials. Add in a 1-for-7 record in England and I’m inclined to pass at what figures to be a very short price. Likewise, I’m lukewarm at best on Queen Goddess, who ran a career-best race in this spot a year ago, but failed to win in four subsequent starts in 2023 and enters off a ninth-place finish in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes in December at Del Mar. I’ll keep an eye on the odds as I think she a talented racemare, but at the 6-1 morning-line price I opted to go primarily a different direction.
#6 Ruby Nell (8-1) looks like the controlling speed in the Filly and Mare Turf shipping in from Southern California for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. She has won five of her last seven starts since shifting focus to turf racing with three front-running runaway wins in that span. She also has won from off the pace but she showed in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes in November and the Lady Shamrock Stakes in December, both at a mile at Santa Anita Park, that she can set swift fractions – opening half-mile in :45.46 and :45.59, respectively – and still finish well. There is not much speed entered and I think she’s by far the class of that group and has a chance to lead from start to finish. If the price is right, I’ll drop a win bet on her and she would be a potential single in multi-race bets like the Pick 4 and Pick 5 if you are so inclined. But for this blog, I’ll focus on this race and making a nice score playing exactas and trifectas.
#9 Didia (6-1) had won five of her first six starts since coming to the United States from Argentina before finishing 10th, beaten by 4 ½ lengths, in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf against some of the best turf females in the world. She actually earned a career-best Equibase and Beyer Speed Figure in the race and profiles as a major win candidate.
Beyond Ruby Nell and Didia, I’m focused on Filly and Mare Turf runners who could surprise at a price. #1 Cairo Consort (15-1) enters off a fourth-place finish Dec. 23 at Gulfstream in the Tropical Park Oaks, but she looked like she needed a race in her first start in 7 ½ months and has a strong chance to improve in her 4-year-old debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. Based on speed figures, she will need to take a jump here, but she has held her own in Grade 1 races with two placings in as many tries, owns a pair of Gulfstream stakes wins, and has good finishing speed.
#3 Accomplished Girl (20-1) stretched out from sprints to a mile for the Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes Dec. 30 at Gulfstream and rallied willingly from third for a runner-up finish … pretty encouraging for her first try stretching out. She finished well in that race and has nice tactical speed to get the jump on the closers.
Finally, I’ll add #11 Mission of Joy (10-1) to the mix after a third-place finish to Mawj, beaten by a length, in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana Oct. 14, 2023, at Keeneland. That effort was flattered when Mawj came back and finished second against males in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park. Trainer Graham Motion is very strong off this type of layoff (60-180 days) and he’s clicked at a 29% clip with jockey John Velazquez over the last two years at Gulfstream.
I’ll play Ruby Nell with Cairo Consort, Accomplished Girl, Didia, and Mission of Joy in exactas and add in Queen Goddess for trifectas with my bets hinging on Ruby Nell running either first or second.
Exacta Strategy for the Filly and Mare Turf on a $20 Budget
$3 exacta: 6 with 1,3,9,11 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $3 exacta 8 with 1,3,9,11
$2 exacta: 1,3,9,11 with 6 ($8)
What to say at the betting window: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $2 exacta 1,3,9,11 with 8
Trifecta Strategy for the Filly and Mare Turf on a $30 Budget
$1 trifecta: 6 with 1,3,8,9,11 with 1,3,8,9,11 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $1 trifecta 6 with 1,3,8,9,11 with 1,3,8,9,11
$50-cent trifecta: 1,3,8,9,11 with 6 with 1,3,8,9,11 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, 50-cent trifecta 1,3,8,9,11 with 6 with 1,3,8,9,11
Daily Double
10-9
10-9
$41
Superfecta
9-12-6-7
9-12-6-7
$245
Trifecta
9-12-6
9-12-6
$248
Daily Double
10-9
10-9
$41
Superfecta
9-12-6-7
9-12-6-7
$245
Trifecta
9-12-6
9-12-6
$248
