#TheAction: Finding Value with True Odds on STATS Race Lens

04.18.2017

We’ve talked about finding "value" a lot on The Action, and STATS Race Lens from Equibase can help. Built into STATS is a tool called TRUE ODDS. Using unique algorithms, TRUE ODDS not only predicts the pace of a race, it also lays out what a horse’s odds should be — based on statistical analysis. It does a lot of tedious math work for you. With TRUE ODDS listed for each horse, you can then compare those with a horse’s actual odds. Whenever the horse’s actual odds are higher (or will pay more) than the TRUE ODDS, you've stumbled upon what we might call an "overlay" that’s offering good betting value. On STATS, such overlays are easy to identify because they're highlighted in yellow as “a potential betting opportunity.”

ADVANCED ACTION: Before the Live Odds column is populated, the Adjusted True Odds column will be highlighted in yellow for potential "value" by comparing the Adjusted True Odds to Morning Line (M/L) Odds. Once the Live Odds are available then the Adjusted True Odds will be compared to the Live Odds. The True Odds column uses statistical analysis to display the fair odds based on unique algorithms developed by the quantitative analysis team at STATS. The Adjusted True Odds reflect any matching filter sets or manual adjustments to the sliders for the probability factors. Next week on The Action, we'll discuss how to modify the Adjusted True Odds on a race by race basis using the sliders and how to create your own slider filter sets.

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