So, you’ve got your single… now you’re building out the rest of your Pick-4 or Pick-5…. You still need to identify which races to go short in… and which ones to spread, in the hopes of those races being won by horses at bigger prices. For me, a spread race is usually going to be cheaper, lower-level race… claiming events where there’s no standout… and where even the favorites are often inconsistent. Races like turf sprints… they can get chaotic… if the favorite misses the break, runs into trip trouble… they’re done. And even dirt sprints with the potential for a pace meltdown… no matter what class level, a good speed horse is always more vulnerable when there’s speed pressing.
The True Odds module in STATS Race Lens can help identify strong favorites and contentious races as well. If the top choice in Adjusted True Odds is lower than 2 to 1 and is highlighted in yellow as a potential overlay, that is often a type of horse that can be singled in the horizontal wagers. If many horses in a race are between the 3 to 1 and 6 to 1 odds range in Adjusted True Odds, it is likely a contentious race with many contenders that figure to have a good chance to win.