#TheAction: Leaving a Horse Out

09.27.2016

Basic Action: Playing the races is an exercise in trial and error. One of the most common errors made by players is making bets that involve all horses but one. For example, betting an exacta key with a horse on top over all horses – except one horse. Most often, multi-race players will go “all but one” on Pick 4 or Pick 5 tickets.

Sometimes it’s done to save a few dollars, with the presumption that the horse that wasn’t used has no chance of factoring in the top few finishers. But think about it, if you’ve used every other horse on your ticket, do you really have a strong opinion about who will or won’t run well in the race?

Invariably, tossing a horse who has “no chance of winning” when using all other horses on your ticket will result in something crazy happening and that excluded horse winning the race. Maybe I just have worse luck than most but this scenario has played out enough times for me to never go “all but one” and instead just go all.

Advanced Action: Going all or all but one, to begin with, isn’t always the wisest financial play. The more combinations on your ticket, the more expensive it becomes to play the ticket. Naturally, the more money you spend, the larger the burden to overcome your investment – and the shorter your return on investment.

My advice would be to pick spots in which you have confident opinions and bet more on those races, rather than betting all on races in which you don’t have a strong opinion and being at the mercy of a longshot coming in to justify the investment. Lower level claiming races in the middle of a Pick 4 sequence could be justifiable scenarios to go all or all but one but in most cases, avoid doing that. If you can only narrow down a potential field to all but one, save yourself the stress and just hit the all button!

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