If there’s ever a time to have a bold opinion in horse racing, it’s the Kentucky Derby. What’s the fun in betting the favorite in the world’s biggest horse race? Holding a contrarian view in betting event filled with 20 contenders can mean massive returns.

In just the last three years, a $10 win bet on the horse who won the Derby returned $818, $196.81 and $162.10. All of the winners were longshots who were minimally discussed in the lead up to the Kentucky Derby. So, with that in mind, we asked our staff to go out on a limb and provide two hot takes for this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve: Something no one expects that will happen and something everyone expects that won’t happen.

Dan Tordjman

Hot Take #1: A maiden will hit the board (finish top 3) — and just might win the Derby

Maiden Publisher can win the Kentucky Derby. (Coady Media)

Yes, it’s been more than 90 years since a maiden — a horse who has yet to win a race — captured the roses but this year’s field features a maiden who seems to be peaking at just the right time. Though he’s yet to break through, Publisher has improved each of his last two races and showed me something with his sustained rally in the Arkansas Derby (in which he was just outkicked by one of the probable Derby favorites, Sandman). I’ll be using Publisher on most of my betting tickets, including exactas (top two finishers) and trifectas (the first three finishers). Read more about maidens in the Kentucky Derby.

Hot Take #2: The favorite will not hit the board

This take assumes that the favorite will be Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism. He’s a horse with a lot of talent but, to date, four of his five races were in fields of just five horses. Since Journalism typically runs from off the pace, he’ll have to navigate a journey that sees him weave in and out traffic and past the largest, most talented field he’s faced. And while I respect his jockey Umberto Rispoli, he’s a much better turf rider than dirt rider and still has something to prove on the national stage.

Mike Curry

Driving the Journalism bandwagon. (Coady Media)

Hot Take #1: Journalism will become the 14^th Triple Crown winner

While my colleague Dan Tordjman will bet against Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism in the Kentucky Derby, I’ll go out on a limb and say not only will he dominate but he will sweep the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes and do so against a very good group of 3-year-olds on the 10^th anniversary of American Pharoah’s 2015 sweep. If you’ve read my weekly Heating Up, Cooling Down blogs, you know Journalism has been my No. 1 3-year-old all year. He has a high cruising speed and can track a fast pace and still finish fast – he’s been doing it for his entire career. The only major threat I see in the Derby is Japanese invader Luxor Café.

Hot Take #2: I’ll fade most of the major prep races

The matches my first hot take above, but even when stretching out to bet trifectas, I will be avoiding the runners coming out of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks, United Arab Emirates Derby, and (mostly) the Arkansas Derby. The only horse from those races I will consider for the trifecta is Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. I’ll use Journalism and Luxor Café heavily in the top two slots and fill in with horses from the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino and Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa, plus Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza if he gets in.

Patrick Reed

Wood Memorial Stakes winner Rodriguez. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Hot Take #1: Rodriguez will lead the field past the quarter pole into the homestretch.

This Kentucky Derby field is quite demarcated in terms of running styles: you’ve got a handful of speed horses, a smaller group that prefers to race in midpack and stalk, and quite a number of stone-cold closers. However, I regard Rodriguez as the “speed of the speed,” so to speak, and Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith has already told reporters that he plans to send the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino aggressively out of the gate. I think this colt has more natural talent than the other front-runners in the Derby, although East Avenue is somewhat of a wild card since he did return to solid form in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last out. Look for Smith to “pull a Bodemeister” on Rodriguez and hustle him to the front in an attempt to wire the Derby field as that fast colt nearly did in 2012. Whether Rodriguez can do so depends on how much pressure he gets, and I think he’ll get enough, because I also think …

Hot Take #2: Bob Baffert won’t become the all-time winningest trainer in the race.

Last fall, I thought (probably along with many others) that Baffert would bring several top prospects to Derby 151 in his first appearance back after a three-year suspension. In fact, I envisioned the silver-haired Hall of Famer potentially toting a six-pack of colts primed to overwhelm the rest of the field and firmly re-establish his status as the best Kentucky Derby trainer of the contemporary era. But several of them have not progressed (Barnes, Gaming, Getaway Car, Romanesque, etc.), one of them started too late (Cornucopian), and as it turned out he only has Rodriguez and last year’s champion juvenile colt Citizen Bull entered on May 3. Both are speed horses, and as noted by Daily Racing Form’s David Grening, Citizen Bull breezed without blinkers and behind a workmate last week in a possible attempt to see how he responds to being taken off the pace. I think Citizen Bull has peaked, and I think Rodriguez won’t be able to finish off his trip under Smith. In my opinion, the Kentucky Derby winner will come from this group – Journalism, Sovereignty, Luxor Café, and Sandman – which means that Baffert will have to spend another year tied with Ben Jones in all-time Derby wins with six before he returns to Louisville again in 2026, no doubt loaded with talent.

Noel Michaels

Do not bet the horses starting from post No. 1 or No. 2 (Eclipse Sportswire)

Hot Take #1: Don’t worry about the odds, just pick the winner

I’ll take Journalism this year, even if he’s the favorite. No matter if you are picking a favorite or a longshot, the nature of the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field ensures that you will get plenty of value on your winning tickets. The Derby can produce longshot winners like Rich Strike who paid $163.60 to win on a $2 bet in 2022, but even the more predictable Derby winners result in value payoffs like $32.42 win on Mage in 2023 or $39.22 on Mystik Dan in 2024. Even when the favorites win, as was the trend from 2014-’18, the average win payoff during that chalky five-year stretch was $8.12 on horses the likes of Justify ($7.80), Always Dreaming ($11.40), Nyquist ($6.60), American Pharoah ($7.80), and California Chrome ($7.00). If Journalism wins and pays $8.12, I’ll take it.

Hot Take #2: A post-position draw of 1-2 will remove any horse from my list of top picks

You don’t want to ignore the importance of post positions in the Kentucky Derby. The outside posts, even including the far outside posts, hold their own, but the posts you really want to avoid are posts 1 and 2. Based on results from the 20-horse era of the Kentucky Derby the past three decades, you can’t expect any horse drawing posts 1-2 to win. The last winner from post 2 was Affirmed in 1978. The last winner from post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986. That means horses from posts 1-2 have gone 0-for-76 the past 38 years.