BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a review of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 3 at Churchill Downs.

King’s final article leading into the big race collects opinions on which contenders have the best chance of winning the 151^st Derby based on their overall performances during prep season and also their training at Churchill Downs leading into the race.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Sovereignty

The second morning-line favorite at 5-1 for the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty may be a late runner, but he has led from start to finish in the Derby Dozen rankings this year, with this week’s update bringing this feature to a close in 2025. The Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes winner, second in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa most recently as the favorite, needs to elevate his game somewhat to beat Journalism and outrun all the other talented 3-year-olds in the field, but signs point to him being set for a career-best effort. He has trained with enthusiasm at Churchill Downs in the Derby lead-up, and he was sensational in winning the Street Sense Stakes locally by five lengths last year.

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2. Journalism

Beyond his stellar race record – he’s 4-for-4 in routes since a debut third in a sprint – he is bred for success at a classic distance, being by Curlin. Quick on speed figures, he is also seemingly well drawn in post 8 and training smoothly. If he has a weakness, and you really have to go looking for it, he comes out of races with short fields; he has beaten a total of 12 foes in his three graded stakes wins in California. He faces 19 in the May 3 Kentucky Derby. But he does come off a seasoning-gaining experience in the Santa Anita Derby when he recovered after getting stuck behind a tiring rival briefly on the second turn.

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3. Luxor Café  

Riding a four-race win streak in Japan and having a stellar pedigree, he is a formidable presence in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Though no Japanese horse has won this American classic, Forever Young came within two noses of doing so last year when third. Luxor Café seemed a little flat in his training compared to others a few days ago, but seemed to pick up his energy level in posting a five-furlong workout in 1:02.40 April 29, in which jockey João Moreira barely let him out of an open gallop. This horse possesses the tactical speed necessary to secure a good position in the Derby and also the kick to be a threat over the race’s demanding final quarter-mile stretch.

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4. Grande

A winner of two of three starts, Grande has made a nice appearance with his gallops at Churchill since arriving from Keeneland, where he recorded his final pre-Derby workout. As for his form, following two good-looking wins in Florida, he had every right to quit when carried wide and shuffled into the first turn of the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct, but he kept grinding away to finish second to Rodriguez in a swiftly run race. He earned an even better Thoro-Graph performance figure than victorious Rodriguez due to this wide trip. Trainer Todd Pletcher is a two-time Derby winner, and jockey John Velazquez has won the race three times. Remember that Velazquez also guided Medina Spirit to what seemed to be a fourth win in 2021, though that win did not stick when the Bob Baffert trainee was disqualified for a medication infraction.

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5. Sandman

A draw in post 17 (just inside of Sovereignty) should give jockey Jose Ortiz a better opportunity to place this long-striding Arkansas Derby winner in the clear, but he will have to still try to tuck in and save a bit of ground. (The same is true for top-rated Sovereignty.) He descends a smidge this week, owing to a disappointing effort from Arkansas Derby fourth-place finisher Cornucopian when that colt was second as the 1-5 favorite in a first-level allowance optional claimer recently at Aqueduct. Perhaps the quality of the Arkansas Derby was not as strong as it appeared when it was contested.

(Note: Baeza, runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, is as of this writing April 29 stuck on the also-eligible list and in need of a scratch by the morning of May 2 to draw into the race. He is not officially in the Derby Dozen rankings for that reason. He would otherwise fall just below Sandman in the pecking order.)

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6. Burnham Square 

He appears to be of quality, having beaten the now-sidelined Tappan Street in the Holy Bull Stakes and also winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his final prep in early April. The latter race unfolded perfectly for him, however, with a hot pace and with several horses running below expectations over the 1 1/8-mile distance. He loved the added ground, though, and he ought to like the 1 ¼ miles of the Derby even more. Just have doubts about him getting the necessary trip. He is slow to accelerate, likely meaning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. will have to circle horses aboard this gelding.

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7. Coal Battle

Small in size but not in heart, Coal Battle tends to go through the motions in his breezes, needing encouragement from his rider. But that’s him; he’s all business on race day. It is doubtful that another competitor in this Derby lineup has better quickening ability. Still, have to suspect his bid stalls late over 1 ¼ miles. Winner of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes, he gives the impression of being more of a middle-distance runner and perhaps a cut below the top dozen 3-year-olds in this year’s Derby.

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8. Chunk of Gold  

In a sport in which folks can spend seven figures for a horse, it is refreshing to see that a $2,500 yearling purchase can also make the biggest race. Along with Coal Battle, he is one of the Cinderella stories of this year’s Derby. Before his late arrival at Churchill Downs, his workouts at Turfway Park were encouraging, pointing to him approaching this race in top condition. The Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby runner-up also hasn’t looked like a $2,500 horse galloping around the track alongside his more expensive counterparts in recent days. Doubt he is fast enough to win, but anticipating an honest performance.

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9. Tiztastic

Having won the longest domestic Kentucky Derby prep, the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, he is not as much of a question mark at the 1 ¼-mile distance that others in the field appear to be. But he won the latter race with a sweet trip, and he has fallen short of barnmate and fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Publisher in his works at Churchill Downs leading into the Derby. Both colts are longshots to give Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen his first Derby victory after going 0-3-2 with 26 starters. Epicenter was the most recent second-place finisher for Asmussen three years ago, upset by 80.80-1 bomb Rich Strike.

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10. American Promise

Even taking into account how quickly the track at Colonial Downs was playing on the day of the Virginia Derby, he still smoked around the oval, covering 1 1/8 miles in a track record 1:46.41. He shows an encouraging speed-figure pattern. He “paired,” or approximately matched, his career-best Equibase Speed Figure in his latest when he ran a 101, just a point below the 102 he received for a maiden win in December. American Promise has yet to challenge in two graded stakes, but note that he defeated eventual Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher in that aforementioned maiden win. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who remarkably still rides the stable pony at age 89, goes for his fifth Derby win Saturday.

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11. Final Gambit

With the question looming if he can replicate his best form on dirt in the Kentucky Derby, having run exclusively on turf and all-weather surfaces, he has won over some support after a few solid in-company works over the Churchill Downs strip. Winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway Park’s all-weather track with a last-to-first rally, he may be capable of handling the dirt, though remember that kickback from trailing horses in dirt racing can discourage horses unfamiliar with it, as was demonstrated last fall by City of Troy running poorly in the Longines Breeder’s Cup Classic. Expecting he will pass horses and roughly split the field, as 2024 Jeff Ruby winner Endlessly did in finishing ninth last year.

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12. Citizen Bull

Trainer Bob Baffert, a six-time Derby winner, felt Citizen Bull was short of fitness when he faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, the colt’s first loss at a route. He has given Citizen Bull a series of fast workouts since. While he does not give the impression of being best suited to 1 ¼ miles, he’s fast and typically a sharp-breaking horse. So drawing the inside post position in the Derby might not disadvantage him from a tactical perspective. With an alert break, he might be able to dare the field to catch him, though one would expect him to need to set quick splits to be able to outrun stablemate Rodriguez and Godolphin’s East Avenue to the lead.