Welcome to 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles – updated after the first jewel of the Triple Crown from the previous title of Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles – where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail.

This week’s profile, of course, is Sovereignty, the 1 ½-length winner of the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 3 at Churchill Downs.

Sovereignty’s Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is considering the Into Mischief colt for the $2 million Preakness Stakes May 17 at Pimlico Race Course. If he feels the turnaround time is too fast, he could instead opt for the $2 million Belmont Stakes June 7 at Saratoga Race Course at the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the Kentucky Derby. So, let’s take a closer look at Sovereignty and how he might fit for both races.

Racing Résumé: I profiled Sovereignty after his victory March 1 in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in his return from a layoff of more than four months, and he was second on my Kentucky Derby leaderboard behind Journalism for most of the nine subsequent weeks. Sovereignty has been a top 3-year-old pretty much from the start of the year.

He ran fourth in his debut in a sprint in August 2024 at Saratoga Race Course, ran second in a one-mile maiden race five weeks later at Belmont at the Big A, and had a coming-out party in his first start around two turns when winning the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes by five lengths Oct. 27, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

In the Street Sense Stakes, Sovereignty scorched his final three eighths of a mile in :36.74 to give every indication that he was a serious racehorse, and his star has continued to rise as a 3-year-old.

Sovereignty flashed his finishing speed again in his 3-year-old debut in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth Stakes, completing a last-to-first rally under Junior Alvarado utilizing a final three furlongs in :37.68. He again closed powerfully in the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa but ran out of real estate when second to Tappan Street.

Mott had Sovereignty ready to fire on Kentucky Derby day, however, on a track he had shown an affinity for and with an extra eighth of a mile for his closing bid. He completed his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.75 and his final furlong in :12.71 to outfinish favorite Journalism, completing the 1 ¼ miles in 2:02.31 on a sealed sloppy track. He improved to three wins and two seconds in six career starts and earned his first Grade 1 win in U.S. racing’s marquee race.

“When I turned to the backside, he was traveling beautifully,” winning jockey Junior Alvarado said after Sovereignty rallied from 16^th of 19 starters to prevail. “When we hit the five-eighths pole he said he was ready. I didn’t want to get too excited. When we turned for home, I got him in the clear and he showed his stuff. I knew what he was capable of.”

Speed Figures: Sovereignty needed to take a step forward in terms of speed figures to win the Kentucky Derby and he did so, recording a new career-best Equibase and Beyer Speed Figure. He improved four points from his previous best to a 103 Equibase Speed Figure and recorded a nine-point Beyer improvement to a 104. If he can duplicate that effort on two weeks rest in the Preakness or on five weeks of rest in the Belmont Stakes, he’s a major win candidate.

Running Style: As a deep closer, Sovereignty is dependent on multiple variables out of his control, such as pace and traffic. He benefitted from a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, but he was forced very wide in the stretch. Ground loss is better than getting stopped behind a wall of fading horses, however, and Sovereignty sustained his rally from the turn through the finish line.

Pimlico has a reputation as being kind to speed horses. Last year’s Preakness winner Seize the Grey led from start to finish and six of the last 16 Preakness winners led after a half-mile. The only deep closer to win the Preakness in the last 16 years was Exaggerator in 2016, so Sovereignty’s running style could hurt his Preakness chances. The 1 ¼-mile Belmont Stakes at Saratoga last year was won by a runner who was second in the early stages, Dornoch, but it’s not fair to predict if there is any type of preferred style off of one edition of the race at Saratoga.

Sovereignty and Junior Alvarado after the win. (Coady Media)

Pedigree Notes: Sovereignty is by Into Mischief, the leading sire in North America for six straight years from 2019 through 2024. Sovereignty joined Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021) as Kentucky Derby winners sired by Into Mischief.

Sovereignty is one of two winners from three starters produced by Crowned, by 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini. His grandam (maternal grandmother) is Grade 1 winner Mushka, by Empire Maker, who improved with age when winning the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes at age 4 in 2009.

Sovereignty should have no problem with 1 3/16 miles for the Preakness and 1 ¼ miles for the Belmont Stakes – he just won the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby. There also is a strong chance he continues to improve with age and experience. With only six starts to date, Sovereignty might just be figuring things out.

Triple Crown Potential: Ten years ago, American Pharoah ended a 37-year drought by sweeping the Triple Crown. Justify followed suit in 2018. Could Sovereignty become the 14^th Triple Crown winner?

There is a reason Triple Crown winners are so rare: it’s incredibly hard to win three races against elite competition in five weeks, the second (Preakness) coming on a short turnaround with two weeks rest, all while having a target on your back.

There will be new shooters in the Preakness Stakes, like speedy Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Rodriguez. Other Derby runners will rest up for the Belmont Stakes five weeks later. Should Sovereignty win the Preakness – and there is no guarantee as of this writing he will even return in two weeks – he would have a host of rested contenders from the Kentucky Derby and beyond waiting to play spoiler in the Belmont Stakes.

Sovereignty is a very good racehorse, perhaps a rising star, but I think a Triple Crown sweep, while possible, is very unlikely against what looks like a quality group of 3-year-olds.

The Preakness would be a difficult assignment for a deep closer like Sovereignty unless he gets a fast pace in the race or he can track a little closer to the front. If Mott and owner-breeder Godolphin opt to skip the Preakness in favor of the Belmont Stakes, Sovereignty would be very tough to beat in his current form on five weeks of rest.

I’d love to see a Sovereignty-Journalism rematch in the Preakness Stakes for the milestone 150^th edition, but for now we wait to see how the field develops and whether or not there will be the chance for a Triple Crown sweep should Sovereignty take his talents to Baltimore.