2025 Kentucky Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for Jan. 28

Racing
Heating Up Cooling Down Kentucky Derby Southwest Stakes Lecomte Staeks Leonatus Stakes Sandman Disco Time Speed King Chancer McPatrick Banks Gaming Patch Adams Baby Max Hypnus Take Charge Tom prospects 3-year-old Thoroughbreds horse racing
Sandman, shown winning a maiden race last summer at Saratoga, is developing into an exciting Kentucky Derby prospect over the winter and ranks first on Mike Curry’s latest list of 3-year-olds. (Chelsea Durand/NYRA)

This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the second edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division over the last three weeks.

HEATING UP

1. Sandman

Judging from the response I’ve seen on social media and in print, I have plenty of company in coming away from the Southwest Stakes most excited about the runner-up. Take nothing away from Speed King, who held off the late surge of Sandman by a length in the $1 million, 1 1/16-mile race Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park, but in terms of a Kentucky Derby candidate, give me Sandman six days a week and twice on Sunday. The Southwest did not start off with promise for Sandman – there are bad starts and then Sandman’s monstrosity coming out of the Southwest starting gate – when he was standing on two hind legs while rearing toward the grandstand as the rest of the field charged toward the first turn.

Sandman regained composure quickly but was last of nine and 8 ¾ lengths back after the first half-mile while Speed King set an easy pace. Sandman unfurled a sustained rally to pass all but one opponent and was gaining ground on Speed King at the finish line. A $1.2 million purchase as a 2-year-old in training, the Mark Casse trainee has taken some time to mature but he’s bred to run all day and he’s improved his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three starts: a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, a win on a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn, and the Southwest. Sandman’s career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure for the Southwest and new top 92 Beyer Speed Figure make him very worthy of watching on the path to Louisville.


2. Disco Time

Disco Time’s win in the Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds has been one of the more difficult Kentucky Derby prep races for me to evaluate in, well, forever, and I outlined the reasons in my profile on Disco Time from Jan. 21. Essentially, the race was remarkably slow any way you look at it, but at the same time the Not This Time colt overcame an extraordinarily wide trip and closed from 10th of 13 despite a soft pace on a sloppy, sealed track. It was his first time that far back after previously pressing the pace and his first try on an “off” track – this refers to a track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast.” While I cannot speak with certainty, in my view he was not aided by the surface but won in spite of it. The initial speed figures for the Lecomte were … generously, not good. His 84 Equibase Speed Figure was a career-low and the 77 Beyer Speed Figure regressed back to equal that of his career debut. Still, given the adversity he faced in the race, I believe that win might be better than it looks on paper and the 12 Ragozin Speed Figure (lower is better for the Ragozin numbers) he received for the Lecomte win was better than I expected. No doubt, the Brad Cox trained homebred of Juddmonte Farms needs to improve and start running faster races, but he’s 3-for-3 now and firmly in the hunt for a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.


Coady Media

3. Speed King

I had very little confidence in Speed King entering the $1.25 million Southwest Stakes for one main reason: he faded late in the one-mile Remington Springboard Mile in his previous start and finished second after leading in deep stretch. I did not expect him to be able to carry his speed farther in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest on a track that has a reputation for being a deep dirt surface that can be tiring. He proved me (and others) wrong at 14.30-1 odds to earn a place on this list. One could make a compelling argument Speed King belongs higher up among the top three given he beat my top choice fair and square, but the separator for me really comes down to stamina and the fact that I think Sandman wants every bit of the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby distance. On the other hand, I still have significant doubts about Speed King’s ability to extend his speed even another sixteenth of a mile to 1 1/8 miles, much less another three-sixteenths of a mile. That being said, I’m extremely impressed with the Volatile colt. He’s fast – 103 Equibase Speed Figure and 93 Beyer Speed Figure for the Southwest win – and his tactical speed gives him a chance to work out a perfect trip in all of his races. The fact that Springboard Mile winner Coal Battle came back to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park flattered Speed King’s runner-up finish. Speed King is just a very good 3-year-old racehorse with a bright future. If trainer Ron Moquett can build up his stamina, there is a good chance this is a Kentucky Derby horse.


Also eligible: Hypnus made a sterling first impression on the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes undercard with a 2 ½-length win from off the pace in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the sloppy Fair Grounds main track. Trained by 2024 Kentucky Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Ken McPeek, the colt by leading sire Into Mischief earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure and an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s one to add to your Equibase Virtual Stable. …  Baby Max won the one-mile Leonatus Stakes Jan. 18 on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park and also owns a victory on the main track at Churchill Downs. He’s been solid since stretching out in distance with two wins and a second in three starts at a mile or longer. … Take Charge Tom improved to 3-for-3 with a one-length win in the $100,000 Riley Allison Derby Jan. 17 at Sunland Park. He’s not fast enough on paper, but he has some tactical speed and should be able to pick up qualifying points in New Mexico if the connections stay on the Derby trail.


COOLING DOWN

Eclipse Sportswire

1. Patch Adams

I know this probably feels harsh given Patch Adams was making the jump from a maiden win to a $1.25 million graded stakes race in the Southwest Jan. 25, but the hype was heavy around this Into Mischief colt entering the race. He was the definition of a Kentucky Derby buzz horse coming off a blistering win at seven-eighths of a mile that earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure and a 98 Beyer Sped Figure. He’s a very fast 3-year-old. But that next step up in class is always a tricky one and, while Patch Adams didn’t exactly fail in a fourth-place finish, he certainly did not flourish. Let’s call this a reality check. Patch Adams finished 2 ½ lengths behind winner Speed King and earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s still faster than most of his peers, but there is significant work to be done to become a Kentucky Derby contender and his next start looms a major hurdle. Qualifying points are a must!


BENOIT photo

2. Gaming

Last year’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA runner-up closed out his 2-year-old season with a distant third-place finish in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Given his performance in the Breeders’ Cup and his win earlier last year in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, I was willing to overlook that effort at Los Alamitos on a new surface. I’m also inclined to be somewhat forgiving of his eighth-of-nine finish in the Southwest, beaten by 17 ½ lengths, because he faced significant adversity in the race. He broke poorly and was tossing his head around behind horses, then he and jockey Juan Hernandez were forced to check out of traffic entering the first turn and dropped back to second to last. Gaming likes to be closer to the front, so he definitely was taken out of his gameplan in the Southwest then showed little in finishing 16 ¾ lengths behind winner Speed King. Considering where he was on most Kentucky Derby lists just two months ago, Gaming is trending the wrong way. You like to see 3-year-olds build up with each race and show steady improvement; we have not seen that from Gaming. It’s sink or swim time in his next start or his Kentucky Derby aspirations could be swept away. 


3. Banks

After back-to-back open-length wins at one mile on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway Park, Banks was favored at 2.33-1 in the Leonatus Stakes at the same track and distance. With no obvious excuse, the Outwork gelding never showed much in his stakes debut and finished seventh of eight runners, beaten by 11 ¼ lengths. Not the kind of result that inspires confidence, but these class tests are a significant hurdle and Banks might be better prepared for his next try in a stakes race. For now, I don’t consider him a player on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Of note: Chancer McPatrick worked three-eighths of a mile Jan. 26, his first timed workout since what trainer Chad Brown called a “minor ankle surgery.” It’s great to see a talented 3-year-old colt making his way back and this two-time Grade 1 winner absolutely qualifies as a serious prospect on the Triple Crown trail. I mention him here because there is very little wiggle room for setbacks, so a single missed workout would probably force him to miss a planned start in the March 8 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and suddenly things start to get more challenging on the path to Louisville. It was great, nonetheless, to see his name on the workout tab.

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