The first two 200-point races on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held this weekend, meaning it is now or never for many of the 3-year-olds competing in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

Racehorses whose connections have an eye on the starting gate for the 150^th Kentucky Derby May 4 at Churchill Downs can very likely secure a spot with a win, worth 100 points, or a runner-up finish, which is worth 50. Others who have already amassed qualifying points might only need the 25-15-10 points for finishing third through fifth in the Louisiana Derby or Jeff Ruby Steaks, but the reality is that time is running out for talented 3-year-olds in terms of qualifying opportunities for the run for the roses.

The Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles is the longest stateside prep race for the Kentucky Derby, just a sixteenth of a mile shorter than they will be asked to run on Derby day at Churchill, and the $1 million race drew a field of 12 3-year-olds.

Here are five questions that must be answered in the 2024 Louisiana Derby …

1. Will any of the other 11 entrants challenge Track Phantom for the lead? It sure looks like Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner #12 Track Phantom will have a clear path to the early lead from his outside post position. The only runners who would seem to be pace challengers are #2 Hall of Fame, #3 Antiquarian, and #8 Next Level. The first two have tactical speed but have never won leading from start to finish. Next Level has a front-running win in a maiden race to his credit, but has rallied from far back in his two most recent starts. So, it looks like Track Phantom should dictate the early pace. Racehorses left uncontested on the lead can be tough to pass late, and that scenario played out in the Lecomte Stakes when Track Phantom opened a clear advantage and coasted to a 2 ¾-length win. He had another dream trip, however, in the Risen Star Stakes, leading by 1 ½ lengths through a half-mile in :49.67 and could not hold off Sierra Leone in the final furlong. So even if he does not face much pressure early, Track Phantom could be vulnerable stretching out another sixteenth of a mile against a deep field (that does not include Sierra Leone).

2. Which runner (or runners) is best equipped to handle the distance? #5 Catching Freedom is a son of 2014 Besilu Florida Derby winner Constitution, by stamina influence Tapit, and out of a dam (mother) who was a stakes winner and Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles. He’s bred top and bottom for stamina and was gaining ground late on Track Phantom when third in the Risen Star Stakes. I think last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner #7 Honor Marie – by 2015 champion older dirt male Honor Code out of Grade 2-placed Dame Marie, a winner at 1 1/8 miles – has a solid stamina pedigree and could bounce back from a dull fifth off the long layoff in his 3-year-old bow in the Risen Star. I’m also intrigued by #11 Tuscan Gold, who is by a potent stamina sire in Medaglia d’Oro and out of a Grade 3-winning Curlin mare, Valadorna, whose two stakes wins came in two-turn races. Speaking of Tuscan Gold …

3. What’s the scoop on the two entrants making their stakes debuts in the Louisiana Derby? #3 Antiquarian and the previously mentioned #11 Tuscan Gold both step up to test stakes competition on the road to the Kentucky Derby coming out of wins in maiden special weight races. As I mentioned earlier, time is tight for 3-year-olds trying to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, so both Antiquarian and Tuscan Gold face a major class hurdle in the Louisiana Derby that will determine whether or not they qualify for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. Antiquarian showed promise when second in his debut Jan. 13 at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. He then won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the Risen Star undercard by a length. He’s obviously got a terrific trainer-jockey tandem behind him and should get a very nice trip tucked in behind probable pacesetter Track Phantom, so Antiquarian could finish in the top three if he improves. Likewise, Tuscan Gold ran reasonably well when fourth in his debut last November for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown and then took a big step forward when winning a 1 1/16-mile race Jan. 31 at Gulfstream by 6 ¼ lengths. I’m not sure about the quality of his five opponents that day, but it was an impressive win and the well-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt also is backed by a strong tandem in Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. I would not be surprised if one or both of Antiquarian and Tuscan Gold ran well in the Louisiana Derby.

Honor Marie (Coady Photography)

4. Are there any longshots at double-digit odds worth considering? The short answer is, all of them are worth considering because any time you can find a horse you like at a price, there is a chance to make money. I try to find a way to make a case, even if it’s a flimsy one, for every runner in a field. For the Louisiana Derby, I like a horse that is 8-1 on the morning-line to win (more on that below) but here is another I expect to run well at a big price: #9 Real Men Violin (20-1). He finished in the top three in each of his six starts as a 2-year-old and showed class when finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but in his return from an extended break in the Risen Star Stakes he showed little for trainer Ken McPeek. The Mendelssohn colt encountered some traffic approaching the stretch that affected his rally, but more than anything I just think he needed the race. McPeek is very good at building up runners gradually to peak efforts, and I think we’ll see a much-improved race from Real Men Violin in his second start of the year. I’ll use him underneath as a price to spice up my trifecta bet.

5. Who is the pick to win? My success in this race relies upon bounce-back efforts from the top-two finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. While I like runner-up Real Men Violin to improve, I love Kentucky Jockey Club winner #7 Honor Marie’s chances, especially at his 8-1 morning-line odds or higher, and plan to bet him to win and on top of my exacta and trifecta bets. I don’t think we saw anything close to the best from Honor Marie in his first race in 12 weeks. Add in the fact that the Risen Star was held on a sloppy racetrack, it featured a very slow pace, and Honor Marie was forced to race very wide on the final turn, and it’s clear this deep closer’s chances were severely compromised. He should improve in his second start off the layoff and I think a dry (fast) main track, which is expected, also will boost his chances. At 8-1, I’m very excited to bet Honor Marie in the Louisiana Derby.

Mike’s Superfecta: 1. Honor Marie, 2. Catching Freedom, 3. Real Men Violin, 4. Track Phantom